March 09, 2015

Scenarios for the Future of Medicine

For almost two years, FSG has been exploring the future of medicine and medical education, in support of the administration and board of the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME). As noted previously in these pages, FSG developed a set of four ‘future of medicine’ scenarios and facilitated a series of scenario-planning workshops to help guide ACGME strategic decisions at a time of significant uncertainty. Among the insights to emerge from the ACGME workshops were:

  • Drive to lowest prices/greatest convenience in medical delivery, as part of a general “commoditization” of healthcare;
  • Increasing demand for information transparency—along with rising challenges to data and analytical veracity; and
  • Profound social pressures to de-professionalize all healthcare professions, and not just physicians.

Highlights of ACGME’s scenario planning work have been published in the March 2015 issue of the Journal of Graduate Medical Education. ACGME CEO Thomas J. Nasca, MD, and FSG partner Charles W. Thomas have co-authored an article titled, “Medicine in 2035: Selected Insights from ACGME’s Scenario Planning.” A free download of the article is available here.