October 11, 2017

40 million people go missing in the future

Gerard Smith
Managing Principal

This is the first of two short pieces that focus on demographics. A central premise of scenario based (‘alternative futures’) strategic planning is that the future is uncertain because it is emergent—it can’t be predicted by studying individual trends, because what matters is the interaction between them; moreover many of these trends are themselves unpredictable. But some of them are not.

More »
April 25, 2017

The Wrong Way to Use History

Patrick Marren
Principal

There have been a lot of historical analogies being thrown around lately.

The presidency of Donald Trump has caused a lot of smart people (and a lot of less-well-educated ones) to dig up stuff from the past that they see as relevant to our current situation - and to where we may be headed in the near future.

More »
May 17, 2016

Two FSG Clients – One Lesson

Patrick Marren
Partner

Going in two directions at once in the Panama Canal

More »
March 07, 2016

Trump Scenarios

Patrick Marren
Partner

A number of outlets have beaten us to the punch and put forward a variety of scenarios for our nation's future under President Donald Trump. 

More »
February 17, 2016

Scenario Planning and Alternative Futures

Peter Kennedy
Partner

Uncluttering the jargon that describes what we do.

More »
March 31, 2015

This Never Happened

Patrick Marren
Partner

Future scenarios require a past, because there's no data about the future.

More »
February 04, 2015

Future Anti-Vaccinators

Patrick Marren
Partner

Opposition to proven preventive measures is not a left-right issue - and metaphorically, it also affects a lot of businesses. 

In the past few days, a mighty attempt has been made by various Media Creatures to shoehorn a controversy over a measles outbreak and non-vaccination of children into yet another left-right bipolar fight.

More »
January 06, 2015

New Year Scenario Irony Alert

Patrick Marren
Partner

2015 is starting out as a year of unexpected paradoxes and amusing contradictions.

1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is plunging because Americans are no longer being forced to take out mortgages to fill their gas tanks, and those nice guys Vladimir Putin, the Chavistas in Venezuela, and the Iranian cleric-dictators are being put in a tough spot. It's almost as though maybe Wall Street doesn't have the same interests as the average American.

More »
December 11, 2014

A Purely Cognitive Argument Against "Enhanced Interrogation Techniques"

Patrick Marren
Partner

Why torture almost certainly can't work in the real world.

More »

Pages

Subscribe to RSS - Miscellaneous