February 19, 2013

Reasons for Scenario Planning: February 19

Patrick Marren
Partner

Scenario planning is necessary because things happen all the time that have never happened before.

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February 14, 2013

The Valley of the Shadow

Patrick Marren
Partner

WIll the great institutions of society learn how to live with transparency before transparency destroys them?

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February 08, 2013

De Rerum Mutandorum

Patrick Marren
Partner

 

Institutions change faster and more completely than we think. An example from some recent reading: Harvard University.

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November 22, 2012

400-Word Scenario #9: Thanksgiving 2042

Patrick Marren
Partner

"Now let us all join hands and give thanks for all we have this day.

"First, for our gas generator that saved us when the power grid went down yet again last night. It costs four times as much as our fathers' power bill, but it's there when we need it and it keeps our electric fence going when the Others try to enter our yard. 

"Second, for our advanced weaponry and the Iron Dome that defends us from all enemies, domestic and...well, mostly domestic. Our new rooftop electromagnetic pulse gun stops the Others before they even reach the security perimeter moat. 

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September 14, 2012

The Future of Apple and Us

Patrick Marren
Partner

Your scenario consultants imagine the future of Apple products to 2020...so you don't have to.

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August 21, 2012

400-Word Scenario #5: Revenge of the Real?

Patrick Marren
Partner

The Actual has its revenge upon the Virtual...

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August 08, 2012

Search & Replace Theater!

Patrick Marren
Partner

Scenario Planning Fun With the Microsoft Word Search & Replace function: Are we turning Japanese?

I've taken a story from the New York Times and replaced all references to Japan, the yen, etc. with American/dollar terms. This is almost certainly NOT our future in many respects; it is difficult to imagine Americans tolerating stunted economic growth out of an Asian-like reverence for the elderly. But Japan IS demographically ahead of us in terms of the retirement cliff it is facing, so it's an interesting scenario exercise.

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August 07, 2012

My Team's Okay, Your Team's Evil

Patrick Marren
Partner

Jonathan Haidt thinks we're weird. And as scenario consultants, we have to agree.

Actually, he thinks we're WEIRD - as in, "Western Educated Industrialized Rich Democratic." Or at least you live in a country that by world standards corresponds to such adjectives. And if you live in such a country, you may fall into the trap of believing that all moral questions ultimately can be resolved through rationality. That is wrong, according to him.

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July 25, 2012

400-Word Scenario #3: Retirement Redistribution

Patrick Marren
Partner

A future scenario of mass wealth redistribution to a generation that just did not save enough for retirement.

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June 21, 2012

The Problem With Everything: Them

Patrick Marren
Partner

So far I have soft-peddled my actual politics on here. It's only seemed like the sensible thing to do on the website of a commercial enterprise to keep my political opinions to myself.

But there comes a time when you just have to say what you really believe.

There are two types of people in the world: the sensible ones who can see that we are headed down a very bad path, and the nutty ones who want to hit the accelerator until we fly right off a cliff.

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