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April 04, 2014

The Biggest Economic Trend of Our Lifetimes

Patrick Marren
Partner

Has no one noticed the main fact about our country over the past 13 years?

A couple of years ago I wrote an article entitled Strategy's Main Failure: The Extermination of Livelihood.

In it, I came up with the hypothesis that much of what has passed for "strategy" the past decade or more had actually been about cost cutting, and in particular, cost-cutting of the largest line-item: labor. 

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January 28, 2014

Scenario Planning Bible

Patrick Marren
Partner

The U.S. Coast Guard releases version 3.0 of Creating and Sustaining Strategic Intent in the U.S. Coast Guard.

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November 22, 2013

JFK + 50: Alternative Scenarios

Patrick Marren
Partner

A few thoughts on this anniversary...

If JFK had lived:

1. He had started back-channel communications with Castro a few weeks before his death, so our relations with Cuba might have been very different.

2. He had also begun discussions with his advisors about an exit strategy from Vietnam. Some experts think he would have stayed in Vietnam; others, including some of his closest advisors, think he would have gotten out in a second term. It seems unlikely that he would have escalated as aggressively as LBJ.

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October 16, 2013

2012 (and 2011) Redux

Patrick Marren
Partner

Another blast from the past for your enjoyment, as we twiddle our thumbs as Washington flicks lit matches around a gunpowder factory, just as it did at the end of 2012 and in mid-2011 (and will do again next year).

http://www.futuresstrategygroup.com/blog/pmarren/scenario-planning-bulletin

 

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October 10, 2013

What, Us Worry?

Patrick Marren
Partner

The Financial Times has a story that causes our eyebrows to rise well above half-mast this morning.

 

With Greek banks' splendid history of rigorous management and Wall Street hedge funds' impeccable eye for risk and record of spreading nothing but goodness and light in countries in which they invest, what could possibly go wrong? 

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August 28, 2013

Mideast Scenarios, or "Damn, We're Good"

Patrick Marren
Partner

Where will the Arab Spring and Syria take the Middle East? Well, we kind of called it in 2011.

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August 14, 2013

Airline Scenarios: American-US Airways

Patrick Marren
Partner

Normally we are into alternative scenarios. But airlines seem to be stuck in one scenario.

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June 27, 2013

Two Very Bad Scenario Planning Data Points

Patrick Marren
Partner

Illinois and Ireland and the downside of austerity.

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June 10, 2013

Edward Snowden, Government Surveillance and the Future

Patrick Marren
Partner

Scenarios of future surveillance.

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May 30, 2013

400-Word Scenario #11: The Gray Revolution

Patrick Marren
Partner

A bill of rights for the elderly?

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