June 26, 2012

Frank Newman's Six Myths - #3: If everyone tries to save more, the nation will save more, and investment, GDP, and employment will increase

Charles Perrottet
Partner

Today we examine the third “myth” from Frank Newman’s book Six Myths That Are Holding Back America – the presumption that increased saving will drive increased investment.

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June 21, 2012

The Problem With Everything: Them

Patrick Marren
Partner

So far I have soft-peddled my actual politics on here. It's only seemed like the sensible thing to do on the website of a commercial enterprise to keep my political opinions to myself.

But there comes a time when you just have to say what you really believe.

There are two types of people in the world: the sensible ones who can see that we are headed down a very bad path, and the nutty ones who want to hit the accelerator until we fly right off a cliff.

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June 20, 2012

We're Doomed! No, We're Saved! Euro Scenarios

Patrick Marren
Partner

Scenario consulting has rarely had a better promotional material than Europe has been pumping out the past year or so. Uncertainty abounds.

Sunday's election in Greece has once again caused the Very Serious People in Europe to breathe a sigh of relief. "New Democracy, the mainline conservative party that wants to stay in the euro, won the election and can form a government! We're saved!" 

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June 18, 2012

Book Review: Six Myths that Hold Back America

Charles Perrottet
Partner

Frank Newman's book, Six Myths that Hold Back America, exposes what he says are six false beliefs that are widely held in the United States – even or especially among people who are in a position to make policy.

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June 08, 2012

Pray for Austerity to Work in 2013...

Patrick Marren
Partner

Another quick and filthy Friday Scenario Planning exercise.

Someone is holding a gun to your head and asking what the impact of the 2012 election will be on your organization.

Here's your answer: Austerity -- either moderate or less moderate. 

Damnable 2 x 2 consultant matrix for today: Obama vs. Romney on one axis; Keynes Is Right vs. The Austrians Are Right on the other.

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June 01, 2012

U.S. Election Scenario Data Points: June 1, 2012

Patrick Marren
Partner

May job numbers come in weak for yet another month, after some hopeful signs in the first quarter. Some scenarios for the election campaign are coming into focus.

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May 25, 2012

Friday Scenario Warning: Check Your Ideology at the Door

Patrick Marren
Partner

In election season as in any other season, when making business decisions in conditions of uncertainty, ideologies can be deadly - and we all have them. Scenarios can help.

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May 11, 2012

Scenario Consultant Perspective: Friday's Naive Two-By-Two Matrix

Patrick Marren
Partner

Paul Krugman's column today induces us to create scenarios...it's what we do.

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May 07, 2012

Quick & Dirty Scenarios: Francois Hollande, Greece, and Us

Patrick Marren
Partner

Some quick and dirty scenarios about this past weekend's EuroChaos in France and Greece.

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May 04, 2012

Fault Lines: Two Years Later, Some Scenarios

Patrick Marren
Partner

Scenario fodder for the week: Raghuram Rajan's "Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy" won many awards as best business book of 2010. A couple of years on, it's worth examining Rajan's major theses to see how they have played out.

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