October 11, 2017

40 million people go missing in the future

Gerard Smith
Managing Principal

This is the first of two short pieces that focus on demographics. A central premise of scenario based (‘alternative futures’) strategic planning is that the future is uncertain because it is emergent—it can’t be predicted by studying individual trends, because what matters is the interaction between them; moreover many of these trends are themselves unpredictable. But some of them are not.

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October 11, 2017

Older and Wiser?

Gerard Smith
Managing Principal

This is the second of two pieces about demography, focusing on another aspect, less to do with the population’s overall size than with its structure -  specifically the changing composition by age group.

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April 27, 2017

A Hypothesis about Working-Class Rage

Patrick Marren
Principal
Why are ordinary people revolting? Maybe...prediction?
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April 25, 2017

The Wrong Way to Use History

Patrick Marren
Principal

There have been a lot of historical analogies being thrown around lately.

The presidency of Donald Trump has caused a lot of smart people (and a lot of less-well-educated ones) to dig up stuff from the past that they see as relevant to our current situation - and to where we may be headed in the near future.

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November 16, 2016

Hate to Say We Told You So...

Patrick Marren
Principal
But we told you so.
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October 18, 2016

Nate Silver Is A Rigged System

Patrick Marren
Principal

It's not that he's wrong. It's that Presidential elections are not baseball.

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June 13, 2016

The future, after Orlando

Charles Thomas, Managing Principal

What’s left to say?

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May 17, 2016

Two FSG Clients – One Lesson

Patrick Marren
Partner

Going in two directions at once in the Panama Canal

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March 07, 2016

Trump Scenarios

Patrick Marren
Partner

A number of outlets have beaten us to the punch and put forward a variety of scenarios for our nation's future under President Donald Trump. 

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