June 28, 2012

Best Advertisement for Scenario Consulting Ever?

Patrick Marren
Partner

Today's Supreme Court decision on the Affordable Care Act (a.k.a. "Obamacare").

Before this morning's decision, there were two possible outcomes: 

1. The Supreme Court knocks out the Individual Mandate based on the Commerce Clause, with Anthony Kennedy siding with the court's conservatives.

2. The Supreme Court upholds the Individual Mandate based on the Commerce Clause, with Anthony Kennedy siding with the court's liberals.

As it turns out, the conventional wisdom was dead wrong: Chief Justice Roberts sided with the court's liberals, while Kennedy sided with the conservatives, and the "liberal" side won. And the basis of the decision was not the Commerce Clause, but the federal government's taxing power.

Might have been nice for a lot of people if they had entertained a third or fourth or fifth scenario on this one!

Thoughts?