January 07, 2013

Inauguration Scenario

Patrick Marren
Partner

January 21, 2013. Two men warily approach each other in front of tens of thousands of people.

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December 28, 2012

2012: Five Inevitable Things That Did Not Happen

Patrick Marren
Partner

Five things that were "bound to occur," away from which we rashly predict the media will moonwalk at warp speed in 2013.

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December 10, 2012

SCENARIO PLANNING BULLETIN: End of World Is Upon Us

Patrick Marren
Partner

DECEMBER 10, 2012 (QLS News) Hang on to your hats and forget the Mayans: scenario-based planning may suddenly have become a much simpler game. The world is ending December 31, 2012. 

News of the impending apocalypse was revealed by analysts at the University of South Vegas Department of Calendricalosity.

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December 03, 2012

A Scenario Planning Bulletin

Patrick Marren
Partner

Hot Breaking News on the Fiscal Cliff!

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November 30, 2012

Coastal Reconstruction Scenario Planning: Superstorm Sandy and the Retreat Option

Peter Kennedy
Partner

Sometimes leaders do not have the luxury of taking the long view; sometimes high-impact events compel hard decisions to be made now. 

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November 22, 2012

400-Word Scenario #9: Thanksgiving 2042

Patrick Marren
Partner

"Now let us all join hands and give thanks for all we have this day.

"First, for our gas generator that saved us when the power grid went down yet again last night. It costs four times as much as our fathers' power bill, but it's there when we need it and it keeps our electric fence going when the Others try to enter our yard. 

"Second, for our advanced weaponry and the Iron Dome that defends us from all enemies, domestic and...well, mostly domestic. Our new rooftop electromagnetic pulse gun stops the Others before they even reach the security perimeter moat. 

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November 16, 2012

Idea-less in Gaza

Patrick Marren
Partner

Now that the happy horserace of the election is over, on to some grimmer scenarios. 

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November 02, 2012

A Momentary Violation of Scenario Planning Principles

Patrick Marren
Partner

A scenario consultant gives in to the American temptation to make an EXTREMELY precise single-point forecast.

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November 01, 2012

Scenario Planning, Hurricane Sandy, and Relationships

Patrick Marren
Partner

This has been a ridiculously busy and stressful week for three of our recent scenario-based strategic planning clients: the United States Coast Guard, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

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October 25, 2012

Nate Silver and Data-Recency Bias

Patrick Marren
Partner

One more thought provoked by Nate Silver's thought-provoking The Signal and the Noise.

It's about the seductiveness of data and cool, overly precise models.

(In comparison, say, to scenario-based planning? Sorry, the scenario consultants in us always rear their ugly, pragmatic, self-promoting heads. We gotta work on that.)

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