March 31, 2015

This Never Happened

Patrick Marren
Partner

Future scenarios require a past, because there's no data about the future.Read more

More »
February 04, 2015

Future Anti-Vaccinators

Patrick Marren
Partner

Opposition to proven preventive measures is not a left-right issue - and metaphorically, it also affects a lot of businesses. 

In the past few days, a mighty attempt has been made by various Media Creatures to shoehorn a controversy over a measles outbreak and non-vaccination of children into yet another left-right bipolar fight.

The trouble is, this issue truly does not conform to the kind of simplistic Manichaean...Read more

More »
December 11, 2014

A Purely Cognitive Argument Against "Enhanced Interrogation Techniques"

Patrick Marren
Partner

Why torture almost certainly can't work in the real world.Read more

More »
October 24, 2014

Why Driverless Cars Are Still Not

Peter Kennedy
Partner

Autonomous vehicle technology has made great strides, but a fascinating confluence of non-technology factors continues to inhibit the sector.Read more

More »
September 15, 2014

Lessons from Scenario Planning

Patrick Marren
Partner

Some things we've learned in several decades of scenario planning.Read more

More »
April 07, 2014

Unknown Unknowns, Scenarios and Strategic Judgment

Peter Kennedy
Partner

Errol Morris’s documentary on Donald Rumsfeld is in the theatres. The film, plus a companion four-part series on the former secretary of defense in the The New York Times, raises interesting questions about knowledge, uncertainty and corporate strategy.

  

More »
March 09, 2014

Scenario Perspectives on California Drought

Peter Kennedy
Partner

Is the current California drought about climate change or some periodically recurring rainfall shortage?  The experts don't agree.  Which is why planners affected by this situation should rigorously think through multiple scenarios -- and their implications.Read more

More »
January 28, 2014

Scenario Planning Bible

Patrick Marren
Partner

The U.S. Coast Guard releases version 3.0 of Creating and Sustaining Strategic Intent in the U.S. Coast Guard.Read more

More »
October 16, 2013

2012 (and 2011) Redux

Patrick Marren
Partner

Another blast from the past for your enjoyment, as we twiddle our thumbs as Washington flicks lit matches around a gunpowder factory, just as it did at the end of 2012 and in mid-2011 (and will do again next year).

http://www.futuresstrategygroup.com/blog/pmarren/scenario-planning-bulletin

 

A SCENARIO PLANNING BULLETIN from your SCENARIO CONSULTANTS:

In the classic game theory situation in which no one has anything to gain from looking...Read more

More »
October 10, 2013

What, Us Worry?

Patrick Marren
Partner

The Financial Times has a story that causes our eyebrows to rise well above half-mast this morning.

 

With Greek banks' splendid history of rigorous management and Wall Street hedge funds' impeccable eye for risk and record of spreading nothing but goodness and light in countries in which they invest, what could possibly go wrong? 

(Greek government representatives Timeo Danaos & Dona Ferentes have assured...Read more

More »

Pages