October 11, 2017

40 million people go missing in the future

Gerard Smith
Managing Principal

This is the first of two short pieces that focus on demographics. A central premise of scenario based (‘alternative futures’) strategic planning is that the future is uncertain because it is emergent—it can’t be predicted by studying individual trends, because what matters is the interaction between them; moreover many of these trends are themselves unpredictable. But some of them are not. Which brings me to demographics, because of the many forces for change that we consider in the course of our work, the size of the population and its component parts would be placed at the ‘more...Read more

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October 11, 2017

Older and Wiser?

Gerard Smith
Managing Principal

This is the second of two pieces about demography, focusing on another aspect, less to do with the population’s overall size than with its structure -  specifically the changing composition by age group....Read more

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April 27, 2017

A Hypothesis about Working-Class Rage

Patrick Marren
Principal
Why are ordinary people revolting? Maybe...prediction?Read more
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October 03, 2016

Undecideds have decided. Game over?

Gerard Smith
Managing Principal

There’s actually less volatility in the polls than you might think. 

Virtually everything about election polls is anathema to scenario planners. Pollsters are concerned with the short term, and however much their reports are hedged, present a false precision to forecasts of uncertain outcomes. They have also been famously wrong, and are likely to become less and less reliable as response rates continue to fall. And yet, so extraordinary...Read more

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June 28, 2016

Brexit scenarios, and the surprises still lurking

Futures Strategy Group Principals
Partner

Assessing the risks of massive global disruptionRead more

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April 28, 2016

It's Getting Hard to Write Free Trade Scenarios

Peter Kennedy
Partner

We may have already seen the high-water mark of globalization. Read more

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March 02, 2016

A Worrisome Recession Scenario

Peter Kennedy
Partner

What will sustain the global economy in these perilous times?Read more

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December 31, 2015

Some Upbeat Scenarios for 2016

Peter Kennedy
Partner

When it comes to feel-good scenarios about the future, FSG scenario planners tend to be a circumspect bunch.  Still, on the occasion of New Year's, we're not beyond putting a positive spin on current events.  Here's what gives us hope...Read more

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July 16, 2015

Multiple Alternative Future Scenarios Wanted

Patrick Marren
Partner

What to do when Nobel-winning economists disagree? Create alternative scenarios, of course.

The Greek Vouli (Parliament) just approved a series of tough reform measures meant to mollify their creditors and allow it to stay in the euro zone. 

This follows a referendum in which the Greek people rejected as...Read more

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May 12, 2015

A Gigantic Missed Opportunity?

Patrick Marren
Partner

This week may mark the passing of a great national opportunity for the United States.Read more

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