January 06, 2015

New Year Scenario Irony Alert

Patrick Marren
Partner

2015 is starting out as a year of unexpected paradoxes and amusing contradictions.

1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is plunging because Americans are no longer being forced to take out mortgages to fill their gas tanks, and those nice guys Vladimir Putin, the Chavistas in Venezuela, and the Iranian cleric-dictators are being put in a tough spot. It's almost as though maybe Wall Street doesn't have the same interests as the average American.

2. A new Republican Congress is...Read more

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December 11, 2014

A Purely Cognitive Argument Against "Enhanced Interrogation Techniques"

Patrick Marren
Partner

Why torture almost certainly can't work in the real world.Read more

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June 28, 2014

One Hundred Years Ago Today

Patrick Marren
Partner

100 years ago today, according to a late friend of ours.Read more

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February 04, 2014

The Future Mental Olympics?

Patrick Marren
Partner

David Brooks has a column today about the effect computing technology might have on the sorts of intellectual skills humans will value in the future.

"We're clearly heading into an age of brilliant technology. Computers are already impressively good at guiding driverless cars and beating humans at chess and Jeopardy. ...[C]omputers are increasingly going to be able to perform important parts of even mostly cognitive jobs, like picking stocks, diagnosing diseases and granting parole. ......Read more

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December 20, 2013

Season's Greetings from FSG

Peter Kennedy
Managing Principal

With the holidays upon us, FSG is catching its breath and taking stock of a busy and eventful year. We wish you and yours the very best.Read more

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November 22, 2013

JFK + 50: Alternative Scenarios

Patrick Marren
Partner

A few thoughts on this anniversary...

If JFK had lived:

1. He had started back-channel communications with Castro a few weeks before his death, so our relations with Cuba might have been very different.

2. He had also begun discussions with his advisors about an exit strategy from Vietnam. Some experts think he would have stayed in Vietnam; others, including some of his closest advisors, think he would have gotten out in a second term. It seems unlikely that he would have escalated as aggressively as LBJ.

3. If JFK had lived, it is extremely doubtful that either...Read more

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November 07, 2013

Robust Near-Earth Asteroid Scenarios

Peter Kennedy
Partner

Scenario planners are always on the lookout for "wild cards" -- low-probability, high-impact events that can occur across multiple scenarios.  Like near-Earth asteroids.Read more

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October 01, 2013

A Letter to a Great Client

Patrick Marren
Partner

I've had this one written in my head for at least ten years, because some clients are so good that you take nothing for granted.Read more

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September 03, 2013

RIP, Ronald Coase 1910-2013

Patrick Marren
Partner

The legendary and ageless Ronald Coase has finally left the scene.

In honor of the great economist and thinker, we offer an article about his work from six years ago.Read more

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April 10, 2013

4-10: Not Just Kerry Strug's Height

Patrick Marren
Partner

The past is prologue to scenario consultants. Things that happened on April 10 through history.Read more

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