June 17, 2019

Scenario Planning for a Wicked Problem – Climate Change

Dr. Mark Trexler
Managing Director - The Climatographers

Wicked problems resist resolution, but as guest contributor Mark Trexler argues, the uncertainties surrounding climate change should not prevent organizations considering the implications and planning accordingly. 

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May 10, 2019

“The Past is the Only Thing We Know”

Peter Kennedy
Managing Principal

The iconoclastic historian John Lukacs, who died this week, was skeptical of the value of prognostication. So is FSG. 

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April 27, 2017

A Hypothesis about Working-Class Rage

Patrick Marren
Principal
Why are ordinary people revolting? Maybe...prediction?
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April 25, 2017

The Wrong Way to Use History

Patrick Marren
Principal

There have been a lot of historical analogies being thrown around lately.

The presidency of Donald Trump has caused a lot of smart people (and a lot of less-well-educated ones) to dig up stuff from the past that they see as relevant to our current situation - and to where we may be headed in the near future.

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November 16, 2016

Hate to Say We Told You So...

Patrick Marren
Principal

But we told you so.

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October 18, 2016

Nate Silver Is A Rigged System

Patrick Marren
Principal

It's not that he's wrong. It's that Presidential elections are not baseball.

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October 03, 2016

Undecideds have decided. Game over?

Gerard Smith
Managing Principal

There’s actually less volatility in the polls than you might think. 

Virtually everything about election polls is anathema to scenario planners. Pollsters are concerned with the short term, and however much their reports are hedged, present a false precision to forecasts of uncertain outcomes. They have also been famously wrong, and are likely to become less and less reliable as response rates continue to fall. And yet, so extraordinary...

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June 01, 2016

Don’t fight the future, whatever it turns out to be

By Kevin McDermott, Founder of Collective Intelligence and FSG Associate, and Charles Thomas, FSG Managing Principal

The highest barrier to managing strategic change is often the very success of today’s business model.

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July 23, 2015

Article on Preparing for Acquisitions - and Scenarios

Patrick Marren
Partner

An article in Acquisitions International by Joseph Feldman has a bit to say about using scenario planning in acquisitions.

The article (see link) begins on p. 13.

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March 31, 2015

This Never Happened

Patrick Marren
Partner

Future scenarios require a past, because there's no data about the future.

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