December 13, 2017

Scenario Planning for Big Tech and Big Media

Peter Kennedy
Managing Principal

Are we nearing a tipping point?Read more

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April 27, 2017

A Hypothesis about Working-Class Rage

Patrick Marren
Principal
Why are ordinary people revolting? Maybe...prediction?Read more
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April 25, 2017

The Wrong Way to Use History

Patrick Marren
Principal

There have been a lot of historical analogies being thrown around lately.

The presidency of Donald Trump has caused a lot of smart people (and a lot of less-well-educated ones) to dig up stuff from the past that they see as relevant to our current situation - and to where we may be headed in the near future.

Those who like President Trump enjoy talking about how he reminds them of Ronald Reagan, another Republican outsider, who upset liberals but ended up as a transformative president, by anyone's standard. Others see him as being like Andrew Jackson, a populist who got his...Read more

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November 16, 2016

Hate to Say We Told You So...

Patrick Marren
Principal
But we told you so.Read more
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October 18, 2016

Nate Silver Is A Rigged System

Patrick Marren
Principal

It's not that he's wrong. It's that Presidential elections are not baseball.Read more

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October 03, 2016

Undecideds have decided. Game over?

Gerard Smith
Managing Principal

There’s actually less volatility in the polls than you might think. 

Virtually everything about election polls is anathema to scenario planners. Pollsters are concerned with the short term, and however much their reports are hedged, present a false precision to forecasts of uncertain outcomes. They have also been famously wrong, and are likely to become less and less reliable as response rates continue to fall. And yet, so extraordinary...Read more

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June 28, 2016

Brexit scenarios, and the surprises still lurking

Futures Strategy Group Principals
Partner

Assessing the risks of massive global disruptionRead more

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June 13, 2016

The future, after Orlando

Charles Thomas, Managing Principal

What’s left to say?Read more

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May 17, 2016

Two FSG Clients – One Lesson

Patrick Marren
Partner

Going in two directions at once in the Panama CanalRead more

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April 28, 2016

It's Getting Hard to Write Free Trade Scenarios

Peter Kennedy
Partner

We may have already seen the high-water mark of globalization. Read more

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