June 17, 2019

Scenario Planning for a Wicked Problem – Climate Change

Dr. Mark Trexler
Managing Director - The Climatographers

Wicked problems resist resolution, but as guest contributor Mark Trexler argues, the uncertainties surrounding climate change should not prevent organizations considering the implications and planning accordingly. 

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January 15, 2019

Intelligent Technology and the Coming Liability Crisis

Kevin McDermott
Associate Consultant

Intelligent technologies are so woven into our lives that we no longer see them.  They are not us.  Yet we permit them to decide for us...

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December 13, 2017

Scenario Planning for Big Tech and Big Media

Peter Kennedy
Managing Principal

Are we nearing a tipping point?  

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April 27, 2017

A Hypothesis about Working-Class Rage

Patrick Marren
Principal
Why are ordinary people revolting? Maybe...prediction?
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April 25, 2017

The Wrong Way to Use History

Patrick Marren
Principal

There have been a lot of historical analogies being thrown around lately.

The presidency of Donald Trump has caused a lot of smart people (and a lot of less-well-educated ones) to dig up stuff from the past that they see as relevant to our current situation - and to where we may be headed in the near future.

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November 16, 2016

Hate to Say We Told You So...

Patrick Marren
Principal

But we told you so.

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October 18, 2016

Nate Silver Is A Rigged System

Patrick Marren
Principal

It's not that he's wrong. It's that Presidential elections are not baseball.

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October 03, 2016

Undecideds have decided. Game over?

Gerard Smith
Managing Principal

There’s actually less volatility in the polls than you might think. 

Virtually everything about election polls is anathema to scenario planners. Pollsters are concerned with the short term, and however much their reports are hedged, present a false precision to forecasts of uncertain outcomes. They have also been famously wrong, and are likely to become less and less reliable as response rates continue to fall. And yet, so extraordinary...

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June 28, 2016

Brexit scenarios, and the surprises still lurking

Futures Strategy Group Principals
Partner

Assessing the risks of massive global disruption

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June 13, 2016

The future, after Orlando

Charles Thomas, Managing Principal

What’s left to say?

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