December 13, 2017

Scenario Planning for Big Tech and Big Media

Peter Kennedy
Managing Principal

Are we nearing a tipping point?

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October 11, 2017

40 million people go missing in the future

Gerard Smith
Managing Principal

This is the first of two short pieces that focus on demographics. A central premise of scenario based (‘alternative futures’) strategic planning is that the future is uncertain because it is emergent—it can’t be predicted by studying individual trends, because what matters is the interaction between them; moreover many of these trends are themselves unpredictable. But some of them are not.

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October 11, 2017

Older and Wiser?

Gerard Smith
Managing Principal

This is the second of two pieces about demography, focusing on another aspect, less to do with the population’s overall size than with its structure -  specifically the changing composition by age group.

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April 27, 2017

A Hypothesis about Working-Class Rage

Patrick Marren
Principal
Why are ordinary people revolting? Maybe...prediction?
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April 25, 2017

The Wrong Way to Use History

Patrick Marren
Principal

There have been a lot of historical analogies being thrown around lately.

The presidency of Donald Trump has caused a lot of smart people (and a lot of less-well-educated ones) to dig up stuff from the past that they see as relevant to our current situation - and to where we may be headed in the near future.

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March 14, 2017

Designing the Office of Strategic Need

By Kevin McDermott, Founder of Collective Intelligence and FSG Associate, and Charles Thomas, FSG Managing Principal

Organizations are managed by people who acquired expertise from experience in an existing operating environment. But operating environments change unrelentingly.  How does one get out ahead of this change?

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November 16, 2016

Hate to Say We Told You So...

Patrick Marren
Principal
But we told you so.
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October 18, 2016

Nate Silver Is A Rigged System

Patrick Marren
Principal

It's not that he's wrong. It's that Presidential elections are not baseball.

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October 03, 2016

Undecideds have decided. Game over?

Gerard Smith
Managing Principal

There’s actually less volatility in the polls than you might think. 

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June 28, 2016

Brexit scenarios, and the surprises still lurking

Futures Strategy Group Principals

Assessing the risks of massive global disruption

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