October 05, 2012

Breaking New Scenario-Planning Ground with the USCG

Peter Kennedy
Managing Principal

In late September, FSG facilitated a three-day scenario-planning workshop in Westminster, MD as part of the U.S. Coast Guard’s Project Evergreen long-range planning process. Read more

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October 02, 2012

Sodium Pentothal Presidential Debate

Patrick Marren
Partner

[Sometimes the best scenario planning we scenario consultants can do is based on scenarios that will never actually occur.] 

JIM LEHRER: Good evening and welcome to the first 2012 presidential debate. This is the 413th debate I have moderated, and quite frankly, if there's a 414th, I will shoot myself in the eye with a nailgun. So independently of the debate organizers, I took it upon myself to break into the green rooms of the contestants and drop some truth serum into each of their elitist Evian water bottles. I'm looking forward to this - I hope you are as well.

Now, Mr....Read more

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September 19, 2012

400-Word Scenario #7: No More Newspapers

Patrick Marren
Partner

Print newspapers seem to be going away. What happens when they do? It's not all about ink and paper.Read more

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September 08, 2012

400-Word Scenario #6: Prisoners' Dilemma Nation

Patrick Marren
Partner

Ladies and gentlemen, I have 400 words of bad news: we may look back on 2012 as "the good old days of political cooperation."Read more

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September 07, 2012

Scenario Consultants' Wisdom

Peter Kennedy
Managing Principal

Since re-launching our website earlier this year, FSG has been steadily building up content that sheds light on some of the biggest things we have learned over more than 20 years working together as scenario consultants for some of the most dynamic enterprises in the world.  While many other strategy and scenario consultants shy away from sharing best practices, we don’t.  We think it’s important for any organization considering a scenario planning engagement to know what’s ahead for them – not just the process steps, but key lessons learned along the way.  Those lessons we’ve worked hard...Read more

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August 30, 2012

Experts Are the Worst Forecasters

Charles Perrottet
Partner

After decades of trying to help clients anticipate the widest range of plausible possible future events, the following quote rings quite true to us: “Those who know more forecast very slightly better than those who know less.  But those with the most knowledge are often least reliable.” 

Daniel Kahneman, a winner of the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, published this conclusion in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow after extensive research including numerous statistical analyses. 

One of his sources was work done by Philip Tetlock, a psychologist at the...Read more

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August 21, 2012

400-Word Scenario #5: Revenge of the Real?

Patrick Marren
Partner

The Actual has its revenge upon the Virtual...Read more

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August 16, 2012

Partisan Hatred Scenario?

Patrick Marren
Partner

A hypothesis: our current terrible state of political dialogue could be an equilibrium that satisfies far deeper emotional longings than any consensus ever could.Read more

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August 16, 2012

Guest 400-Word Scenario #4: MRSA's Deadly Cure?

Guest blogger Andrew Large gives us a scenario of EXACTLY 400 words: nature's possible revenge on an antibiotic-happy human race.Read more

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August 09, 2012

Scenario Planning: Mid-2012 FSG Round-Up

Peter Kennedy
Managing Principal

It’s been a busy summer for FSG scenario consulting, with several projects running at high-speed, another couple about to be launched, and a steadily building proposal pipeline.  Does this mean a new surge of interest in scenario planning?  Could be.

What’s clear is that there’s an impressive amount of uncertainty in the air, with a seemingly toss-up US presidential election, a still unresolved Euro debt situation, the unknowable but huge consequences of the Supreme Court’s health care decision, and the increasing risk of another recession if Congress and the administration cannot...Read more

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