September 19, 2012

400-Word Scenario #7: No More Newspapers

Patrick Marren
Partner

Print newspapers seem to be going away. What happens when they do? It's not all about ink and paper.Read more

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September 08, 2012

400-Word Scenario #6: Prisoners' Dilemma Nation

Patrick Marren
Partner

Ladies and gentlemen, I have 400 words of bad news: we may look back on 2012 as "the good old days of political cooperation."Read more

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September 07, 2012

Scenario Consultants' Wisdom

Peter Kennedy
Managing Principal

Since re-launching our website earlier this year, FSG has been steadily building up content that sheds light on some of the biggest things we have learned over more than 20 years working together as scenario consultants for some of the most dynamic enterprises in the world.  While many other strategy and scenario consultants shy away from sharing best practices, we don’t.  We think it’s important for any organization considering a scenario planning engagement to know what’s ahead for them – not just the process steps, but key lessons learned along the way.  Those lessons we’ve worked hard...Read more

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August 30, 2012

Experts Are the Worst Forecasters

Charles Perrottet
Partner

After decades of trying to help clients anticipate the widest range of plausible possible future events, the following quote rings quite true to us: “Those who know more forecast very slightly better than those who know less.  But those with the most knowledge are often least reliable.” 

Daniel Kahneman, a winner of the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, published this conclusion in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow after extensive research including numerous statistical analyses. 

One of his sources was work done by Philip Tetlock, a psychologist at the...Read more

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August 21, 2012

400-Word Scenario #5: Revenge of the Real?

Patrick Marren
Partner

The Actual has its revenge upon the Virtual...Read more

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August 16, 2012

Partisan Hatred Scenario?

Patrick Marren
Partner

A hypothesis: our current terrible state of political dialogue could be an equilibrium that satisfies far deeper emotional longings than any consensus ever could.Read more

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August 16, 2012

Guest 400-Word Scenario #4: MRSA's Deadly Cure?

Guest blogger Andrew Large gives us a scenario of EXACTLY 400 words: nature's possible revenge on an antibiotic-happy human race.Read more

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August 09, 2012

Scenario Planning: Mid-2012 FSG Round-Up

Peter Kennedy
Managing Principal

It’s been a busy summer for FSG scenario consulting, with several projects running at high-speed, another couple about to be launched, and a steadily building proposal pipeline.  Does this mean a new surge of interest in scenario planning?  Could be.

What’s clear is that there’s an impressive amount of uncertainty in the air, with a seemingly toss-up US presidential election, a still unresolved Euro debt situation, the unknowable but huge consequences of the Supreme Court’s health care decision, and the increasing risk of another recession if Congress and the administration cannot...Read more

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August 08, 2012

Search & Replace Theater!

Patrick Marren
Partner

Scenario Planning Fun With the Microsoft Word Search & Replace function: Are we turning Japanese?

I've taken a story from the New York Times and replaced all references to Japan, the yen, etc. with American/dollar terms. This is almost certainly NOT our future in many respects; it is difficult to imagine Americans tolerating stunted economic growth out of an Asian-like reverence for the elderly. But Japan IS demographically ahead of us in terms of the retirement cliff it is facing, so it's an interesting scenario exercise.

(Link to original story: ...Read more

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August 07, 2012

My Team's Okay, Your Team's Evil

Patrick Marren
Partner

Jonathan Haidt thinks we're weird. And as scenario consultants, we have to agree.

Actually, he thinks we're WEIRD - as in, "Western Educated Industrialized Rich Democratic." Or at least you live in a country that by world standards corresponds to such adjectives. And if you live in such a country, you may fall into the trap of believing that all moral questions ultimately can be resolved through rationality. That is wrong, according to him.

His new book The Righteous Mind: Why Good...Read more

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