July 16, 2015

Multiple Alternative Future Scenarios Wanted

Patrick Marren
Partner

What to do when Nobel-winning economists disagree? Create alternative scenarios, of course.

The Greek Vouli (Parliament) just approved a series of tough reform measures meant to mollify their creditors and allow it to stay in the euro zone. 

This follows a referendum in which the Greek people rejected as...Read more

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March 09, 2015

Scenarios for the Future of Medicine

Peter Kennedy
Managing Principal

For almost two years, FSG has been exploring the future of medicine and medical education, in support of the administration and board of the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME). As noted previously in these pages, FSG developed a set of four ‘future of medicine’ scenarios and facilitated a series of scenario-planning workshops to help guide ACGME strategic decisions at a time of significant uncertainty. Among the insights to emerge from the ACGME workshops were:

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February 09, 2015

A Most Ironic Scenario

Patrick Marren
Partner

Some perspective from 93 years ago on Greece threatening not to pay back its monstrous debt to German and other banks.Read more

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February 04, 2015

Future Anti-Vaccinators

Patrick Marren
Partner

Opposition to proven preventive measures is not a left-right issue - and metaphorically, it also affects a lot of businesses. 

In the past few days, a mighty attempt has been made by various Media Creatures to shoehorn a controversy over a measles outbreak and non-vaccination of children into yet another left-right bipolar fight.

The trouble is, this issue truly does not conform to the kind of simplistic Manichaean...Read more

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January 28, 2015

Syriza Scenarios

Patrick Marren
Partner

A Greek election may offer a glimpse of the future - or a brief detour to a failed past.

This past Sunday, Syriza, the Coalition of the Radical Left, won a large victory in Greek parliamentary elections over the main establishment parties, the center-right New Democracy party, led by Andonis Samaras, the Movement of Democratic Socialists, led by George Papandreou, and the already shriveling Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK), recently led by Evangelos Venizelos, and founded by Papandreou's grandfather. 

Syriza fell two votes shy of gaining an absolute majority of the...Read more

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December 24, 2014

How We Might Not Have Gotten to Now

Patrick Marren
Partner

Steven Johnson's How We Got to Now - and why we might not get to ThenRead more

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October 31, 2014

Some FAQs about Scenario Planning

Peter Kennedy
Managing Principal

We often get questions about how we do scenario planning and what clients get out of their investment. Here are our answers to some frequently asked questions.Read more

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September 15, 2014

Lessons from Scenario Planning

Patrick Marren
Partner

Some things we've learned in several decades of scenario planning.Read more

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April 07, 2014

Unknown Unknowns, Scenarios and Strategic Judgment

Peter Kennedy
Partner

Errol Morris’s documentary on Donald Rumsfeld is in the theatres. The film, plus a companion four-part series on the former secretary of defense in the The New York Times, raises interesting questions about knowledge, uncertainty and corporate strategy.

  

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April 04, 2014

The Biggest Economic Trend of Our Lifetimes

Patrick Marren
Partner

Has no one noticed the main fact about our country over the past 13 years?

A couple of years ago I wrote an article entitled Strategy's Main Failure: The Extermination of Livelihood.

In it, I came up with the hypothesis that much of what has passed for "strategy" the past decade or more had actually been about cost cutting, and in particular, cost-cutting of the largest line-item: labor. 

Unfortunately, when every company decides it's time to...Read more

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