March 09, 2014

Scenario Perspectives on California Drought

Peter Kennedy
Partner

Is the current California drought about climate change or some periodically recurring rainfall shortage?  The experts don't agree.  Which is why planners affected by this situation should rigorously think through multiple scenarios -- and their implications.Read more

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February 21, 2014

US Consumer Scenarios: How Are We Doing?

Peter Kennedy
Partner

The economy in 2014 is certainly on a much stronger footing than it was a few years ago, but is this as good as it will get for the U.S. consumer?Read more

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February 04, 2014

Scenario Planning Best Practices

Peter Kennedy
Managing Principal

The 3.0 edition of Creating and Sustaining Strategic Intent in the U.S. Coast Guard has now been released. FSG worked with the Coast Guard in developing the content and case studies for the publication.Read more

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January 28, 2014

Scenario Planning Bible

Patrick Marren
Partner

The U.S. Coast Guard releases version 3.0 of Creating and Sustaining Strategic Intent in the U.S. Coast Guard.Read more

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November 22, 2013

JFK + 50: Alternative Scenarios

Patrick Marren
Partner

A few thoughts on this anniversary...

If JFK had lived:

1. He had started back-channel communications with Castro a few weeks before his death, so our relations with Cuba might have been very different.

2. He had also begun discussions with his advisors about an exit strategy from Vietnam. Some experts think he would have stayed in Vietnam; others, including some of his closest advisors, think he would have gotten out in a second term. It seems unlikely that he would have escalated as aggressively as LBJ.

3. If JFK had lived, it is extremely doubtful that either...Read more

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November 07, 2013

Robust Near-Earth Asteroid Scenarios

Peter Kennedy
Partner

Scenario planners are always on the lookout for "wild cards" -- low-probability, high-impact events that can occur across multiple scenarios.  Like near-Earth asteroids.Read more

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October 01, 2013

A Letter to a Great Client

Patrick Marren
Partner

I've had this one written in my head for at least ten years, because some clients are so good that you take nothing for granted.Read more

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September 10, 2013

Every Day Is September 10

Patrick Marren
Partner

Happy Future Scenarios Awareness Day.Read more

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August 28, 2013

Mideast Scenarios, or "Damn, We're Good"

Patrick Marren
Partner

Where will the Arab Spring and Syria take the Middle East? Well, we kind of called it in 2011.Read more

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August 15, 2013

Where Pointy Heads Meet Pointy Pencils: Scenario Planning and Market Modeling

Peter Kennedy
Managing Principal

Scenario planning and quantitative modeling can often be clashing analytical tools. But two FSG consultants innovatively combined them for the benefit of a car company in South America.

 Read more

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