March 07, 2016

Trump Scenarios

Patrick Marren
Partner

A number of outlets have beaten us to the punch and put forward a variety of scenarios for our nation's future under President Donald Trump. 

First off, the Brookings Institution has three Trump scenarios, written by Philip A. Wallach, Senior Fellow in Governance Studies. They are entitled "America Made Great Again: Trump as Figurehead and Negotiator;" "Congress Made Great Again: Trump's Failure and the Return of America's First Branch;" and "Just Sad:...Read more

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February 10, 2016

Alternative Populist Futures

Peter Kennedy
Partner
Populism’s ascent seems to be one take-away from New Hampshire and the US election campaign so far. And it’s not too early to start thinking about the implications for the US and the world. Read more
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May 12, 2015

A Gigantic Missed Opportunity?

Patrick Marren
Partner

This week may mark the passing of a great national opportunity for the United States.Read more

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April 09, 2015

An Implausible (But True?) Interest Rate Scenario

Patrick Marren
Partner

Interesting stuff from Brad DeLong​, possibly explaining much of the last decade of economic weirdness:

"You may say: A 10-year nominal Treasury bond rate no higher than inflation is supposed to be the current value of the natural interest-rate? Good God! That is absurd! Something is wrong with our economy, and wrong at a much deeper level than a simple shortage relative to demand of the supply of safe-and-liquid-store-of-value assets that can be hoarded! It makes no...Read more

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March 31, 2015

This Never Happened

Patrick Marren
Partner

Future scenarios require a past, because there's no data about the future.Read more

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February 09, 2015

A Most Ironic Scenario

Patrick Marren
Partner

Some perspective from 93 years ago on Greece threatening not to pay back its monstrous debt to German and other banks.Read more

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February 04, 2015

Future Anti-Vaccinators

Patrick Marren
Partner

Opposition to proven preventive measures is not a left-right issue - and metaphorically, it also affects a lot of businesses. 

In the past few days, a mighty attempt has been made by various Media Creatures to shoehorn a controversy over a measles outbreak and non-vaccination of children into yet another left-right bipolar fight.

The trouble is, this issue truly does not conform to the kind of simplistic Manichaean...Read more

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January 28, 2015

Syriza Scenarios

Patrick Marren
Partner

A Greek election may offer a glimpse of the future - or a brief detour to a failed past.

This past Sunday, Syriza, the Coalition of the Radical Left, won a large victory in Greek parliamentary elections over the main establishment parties, the center-right New Democracy party, led by Andonis Samaras, the Movement of Democratic Socialists, led by George Papandreou, and the already shriveling Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK), recently led by Evangelos Venizelos, and founded by Papandreou's grandfather. 

Syriza fell two votes shy of gaining an absolute majority of the...Read more

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December 24, 2014

How We Might Not Have Gotten to Now

Patrick Marren
Partner

Steven Johnson's How We Got to Now - and why we might not get to ThenRead more

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December 11, 2014

A Purely Cognitive Argument Against "Enhanced Interrogation Techniques"

Patrick Marren
Partner

Why torture almost certainly can't work in the real world.Read more

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