October 03, 2016

Undecideds have decided. Game over?

Gerard Smith
Managing Principal

There’s actually less volatility in the polls than you might think. 

Virtually everything about election polls is anathema to scenario planners. Pollsters are concerned with the short term, and however much their reports are hedged, present a false precision to forecasts of uncertain outcomes. They have also been famously wrong, and are likely to become less and less reliable as response rates continue to fall. And yet, so extraordinary...

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October 18, 2016

Nate Silver Is A Rigged System

Patrick Marren

It's not that he's wrong. It's that Presidential elections are not baseball.

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October 13, 2016

Fall 2016 Scenario Planning Update

Peter Kennedy
Managing Principal

Scenario planning has never been more challenging – or important.


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