October 11, 2017

40 million people go missing in the future

Gerard Smith
Managing Principal

This is the first of two short pieces that focus on demographics. A central premise of scenario based (‘alternative futures’) strategic planning is that the future is uncertain because it is emergent—it can’t be predicted by studying individual trends, because what matters is the interaction between them; moreover many of these trends are themselves unpredictable. But some of them are not.

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October 11, 2017

Older and Wiser?

Gerard Smith
Managing Principal

This is the second of two pieces about demography, focusing on another aspect, less to do with the population’s overall size than with its structure -  specifically the changing composition by age group.

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October 03, 2016

Undecideds have decided. Game over?

Gerard Smith
Managing Principal

There’s actually less volatility in the polls than you might think. 

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March 04, 2013

Scenario Planning: Warren Buffett, Gottfried von Leibniz, Blaise Pascal, and Peter Bernstein

Gerard Smith
Managing Principal

Why these people would think scenario planning was awesome.

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