April 27, 2017

A Hypothesis about Working-Class Rage

Patrick Marren
Principal
Why are ordinary people revolting? Maybe...prediction?Read more
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April 25, 2017

The Wrong Way to Use History

Patrick Marren
Principal

There have been a lot of historical analogies being thrown around lately.

The presidency of Donald Trump has caused a lot of smart people (and a lot of less-well-educated ones) to dig up stuff from the past that they see as relevant to our current situation - and to where we may be headed in the near future.

Those who like President Trump enjoy talking about how he reminds them of Ronald Reagan, another Republican outsider, who upset liberals but ended up as a transformative president, by anyone's standard. Others see him as being like Andrew Jackson, a populist who got his...Read more

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November 16, 2016

Hate to Say We Told You So...

Patrick Marren
Principal
But we told you so.Read more
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October 18, 2016

Nate Silver Is A Rigged System

Patrick Marren
Principal

It's not that he's wrong. It's that Presidential elections are not baseball.Read more

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May 17, 2016

Two FSG Clients – One Lesson

Patrick Marren
Partner

Going in two directions at once in the Panama CanalRead more

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March 07, 2016

Trump Scenarios

Patrick Marren
Partner

A number of outlets have beaten us to the punch and put forward a variety of scenarios for our nation's future under President Donald Trump. 

First off, the Brookings Institution has three Trump scenarios, written by Philip A. Wallach, Senior Fellow in Governance Studies. They are entitled "America Made Great Again: Trump as Figurehead and Negotiator;" "Congress Made Great Again: Trump's Failure and the Return of America's First Branch;" and "Just Sad:...Read more

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July 23, 2015

Article on Preparing for Acquisitions - and Scenarios

Patrick Marren
Partner

An article in Acquisitions International by Joseph Feldman has a bit to say about using scenario planning in acquisitions.

The article (see link) begins on p. 13.Read more

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July 16, 2015

Multiple Alternative Future Scenarios Wanted

Patrick Marren
Partner

What to do when Nobel-winning economists disagree? Create alternative scenarios, of course.

The Greek Vouli (Parliament) just approved a series of tough reform measures meant to mollify their creditors and allow it to stay in the euro zone. 

This follows a referendum in which the Greek people rejected as...Read more

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May 12, 2015

A Gigantic Missed Opportunity?

Patrick Marren
Partner

This week may mark the passing of a great national opportunity for the United States.Read more

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April 09, 2015

An Implausible (But True?) Interest Rate Scenario

Patrick Marren
Partner

Interesting stuff from Brad DeLong​, possibly explaining much of the last decade of economic weirdness:

"You may say: A 10-year nominal Treasury bond rate no higher than inflation is supposed to be the current value of the natural interest-rate? Good God! That is absurd! Something is wrong with our economy, and wrong at a much deeper level than a simple shortage relative to demand of the supply of safe-and-liquid-store-of-value assets that can be hoarded! It makes no...Read more

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