March 31, 2015

This Never Happened

Patrick Marren
Partner

Future scenarios require a past, because there's no data about the future.Read more

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February 09, 2015

A Most Ironic Scenario

Patrick Marren
Partner

Some perspective from 93 years ago on Greece threatening not to pay back its monstrous debt to German and other banks.Read more

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February 04, 2015

Future Anti-Vaccinators

Patrick Marren
Partner

Opposition to proven preventive measures is not a left-right issue - and metaphorically, it also affects a lot of businesses. 

In the past few days, a mighty attempt has been made by various Media Creatures to shoehorn a controversy over a measles outbreak and non-vaccination of children into yet another left-right bipolar fight.

The trouble is, this issue truly does not conform to the kind of simplistic Manichaean...Read more

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January 28, 2015

Syriza Scenarios

Patrick Marren
Partner

A Greek election may offer a glimpse of the future - or a brief detour to a failed past.

This past Sunday, Syriza, the Coalition of the Radical Left, won a large victory in Greek parliamentary elections over the main establishment parties, the center-right New Democracy party, led by Andonis Samaras, the Movement of Democratic Socialists, led by George Papandreou, and the already shriveling Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK), recently led by Evangelos Venizelos, and founded by Papandreou's grandfather. 

Syriza fell two votes shy of gaining an absolute majority of the...Read more

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January 06, 2015

New Year Scenario Irony Alert

Patrick Marren
Partner

2015 is starting out as a year of unexpected paradoxes and amusing contradictions.

1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is plunging because Americans are no longer being forced to take out mortgages to fill their gas tanks, and those nice guys Vladimir Putin, the Chavistas in Venezuela, and the Iranian cleric-dictators are being put in a tough spot. It's almost as though maybe Wall Street doesn't have the same interests as the average American.

2. A new Republican Congress is...Read more

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December 24, 2014

How We Might Not Have Gotten to Now

Patrick Marren
Partner

Steven Johnson's How We Got to Now - and why we might not get to ThenRead more

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December 11, 2014

A Purely Cognitive Argument Against "Enhanced Interrogation Techniques"

Patrick Marren
Partner

Why torture almost certainly can't work in the real world.Read more

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September 15, 2014

Lessons from Scenario Planning

Patrick Marren
Partner

Some things we've learned in several decades of scenario planning.Read more

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August 26, 2014

ISIS, Hitler, Orwell

Patrick Marren
Partner

A war with no "good" side. Read more

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June 28, 2014

One Hundred Years Ago Today

Patrick Marren
Partner

100 years ago today, according to a late friend of ours.Read more

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