April 24, 2012

Creativity Diary, Monday, April 23

Patrick Marren
Partner

A little scenario about Jonah Lehrer's new book, Imagine: How Creativity WorksRead more

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April 22, 2012

This Week's Scenario Blast from the Past: Nation-Building in '01

Patrick Marren
Partner

Despite our leeriness about extrapolation from the past, we do read a lot of history at FSG in order to write our scenarios. As Mark Twain wrote, "It is not worth while to try to keep history from repeating itself, for man's character will always make the preventing of the repetitions impossible." (Mark Twain in Eruption: Hitherto Unpublished Pages About Men and Events (1940, Bernard DeVoto, editor). 

 

'"...[The] Committee...reluctantly published the Gardener Report on 11 April. It caused instant national outrage.... No sooner had the phrases kill and burn...Read more

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April 21, 2012

The Future Is Now: Reading VINs from Space

Patrick Marren
Partner

Possibly frightening scenario fodder culled from the papers over Saturday morning coffee...Read more

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April 20, 2012

Scenario Planning at FSG

Patrick Marren
Partner

What exactly does the Futures Strategy Group do? We help excellent organizations make better decisions under conditions of uncertainty -- mainly through the use of scenarios.Read more

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April 13, 2012

Seven Wrong Things People Think About the Future

Patrick Marren
Partner

All along the untrodden paths of the future I see the footprints of an unseen hand. - Sir Boyle Roche

We who inhabit the Land of Scenariotopia (as a former colleague termed our little realm) think that the best way to predict the future is not to. That is, you should abandon the search for certainty and explore multiple scenarios of what might be. Many people don't do this, however. We find that lots of them subscribe, usually semi-consciously, to some or all of the following fallacies:

1. "The future is ever-changing." No it isn't. The...Read more

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April 12, 2012

What We Are On About Here

Patrick Marren
Partner

Few people think more than two or three times a year. I've made an international reputation for myself by thinking once or twice a week. - George Bernard Shaw

The Nobel-winning economist and psychologist Daniel Kahneman published a book late last year entitled Thinking, Fast and Slow. In it, he distinguishes between two modes of thinking used by humans. The first is System 1: fast, automatic and intuitive. It suffices for the vast majority of our everyday purposes. We don't need to think deeply about not touching hot stoves, which leg to put our pants on first, or...Read more

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March 27, 2012

Welcome to Our New Website!

Patrick Marren
Partner

Hello, and welcome to our new website!! We aim to make this a place you will want to visit on a regular basis. We want to make it a can't-miss destination for people who need help making critical decisions under conditions of uncertainty, and who may be interested in using scenario planning techniques to do it.Read more

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March 26, 2012

Welcome to Our New Blog

Patrick Marren
Partner

Hello, world.  Welcome to our new blog. In this space we intend to launch an ongoing, entertaining, frequently updated dialogue about the inherent uncertainty in human events, and what organizations can do about it.Read more

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April 11, 2007

Coase Encounters

Patrick Marren
Partner

This month we salute an article that is a lifetime old, and use it to see where things might go in the next lifetime.

Well, the article can’t be said to be a lifetime old, really, because although it has reached threescore and ten, the traditional biblical lifespan, its author, who was 26 at the time it was written, is still alive and kicking, the oldest Nobel laureate around.

Ronald Coase is 96 years old. He is presently listed as Clifton R. Musser Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Chicago Law School. In 1937, he wrote a little article in the journal ...Read more

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