April 04, 2014

The Biggest Economic Trend of Our Lifetimes

Patrick Marren
Partner

Has no one noticed the main fact about our country over the past 13 years?

A couple of years ago I wrote an article entitled Strategy's Main Failure: The Extermination of Livelihood.

In it, I came up with the hypothesis that much of what has passed for "strategy" the past decade or more had actually been about cost cutting, and in particular, cost-cutting of the largest line-item: labor. 

Unfortunately, when every company decides it's time to...Read more

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February 04, 2014

The Future Mental Olympics?

Patrick Marren
Partner

David Brooks has a column today about the effect computing technology might have on the sorts of intellectual skills humans will value in the future.

"We're clearly heading into an age of brilliant technology. Computers are already impressively good at guiding driverless cars and beating humans at chess and Jeopardy. ...[C]omputers are increasingly going to be able to perform important parts of even mostly cognitive jobs, like picking stocks, diagnosing diseases and granting parole. ......Read more

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January 28, 2014

Scenario Planning Bible

Patrick Marren
Partner

The U.S. Coast Guard releases version 3.0 of Creating and Sustaining Strategic Intent in the U.S. Coast Guard.Read more

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November 22, 2013

JFK + 50: Alternative Scenarios

Patrick Marren
Partner

A few thoughts on this anniversary...

If JFK had lived:

1. He had started back-channel communications with Castro a few weeks before his death, so our relations with Cuba might have been very different.

2. He had also begun discussions with his advisors about an exit strategy from Vietnam. Some experts think he would have stayed in Vietnam; others, including some of his closest advisors, think he would have gotten out in a second term. It seems unlikely that he would have escalated as aggressively as LBJ.

3. If JFK had lived, it is extremely doubtful that either...Read more

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October 16, 2013

2012 (and 2011) Redux

Patrick Marren
Partner

Another blast from the past for your enjoyment, as we twiddle our thumbs as Washington flicks lit matches around a gunpowder factory, just as it did at the end of 2012 and in mid-2011 (and will do again next year).

http://www.futuresstrategygroup.com/blog/pmarren/scenario-planning-bulletin

 

A SCENARIO PLANNING BULLETIN from your SCENARIO CONSULTANTS:

In the classic game theory situation in which no one has anything to gain from looking...Read more

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October 10, 2013

What, Us Worry?

Patrick Marren
Partner

The Financial Times has a story that causes our eyebrows to rise well above half-mast this morning.

 

With Greek banks' splendid history of rigorous management and Wall Street hedge funds' impeccable eye for risk and record of spreading nothing but goodness and light in countries in which they invest, what could possibly go wrong? 

(Greek government representatives Timeo Danaos & Dona Ferentes have assured...Read more

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October 01, 2013

A Letter to a Great Client

Patrick Marren
Partner

I've had this one written in my head for at least ten years, because some clients are so good that you take nothing for granted.Read more

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September 10, 2013

Every Day Is September 10

Patrick Marren
Partner

Happy Future Scenarios Awareness Day.Read more

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September 03, 2013

RIP, Ronald Coase 1910-2013

Patrick Marren
Partner

The legendary and ageless Ronald Coase has finally left the scene.

In honor of the great economist and thinker, we offer an article about his work from six years ago.Read more

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