May 12, 2015

A Gigantic Missed Opportunity?

Patrick Marren
Partner

This week may mark the passing of a great national opportunity for the United States.Read more

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April 09, 2015

An Implausible (But True?) Interest Rate Scenario

Patrick Marren
Partner

Interesting stuff from Brad DeLong​, possibly explaining much of the last decade of economic weirdness:

"You may say: A 10-year nominal Treasury bond rate no higher than inflation is supposed to be the current value of the natural interest-rate? Good God! That is absurd! Something is wrong with our economy, and wrong at a much deeper level than a simple shortage relative to demand of the supply of safe-and-liquid-store-of-value assets that can be hoarded! It makes no...Read more

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March 31, 2015

This Never Happened

Patrick Marren
Partner

Future scenarios require a past, because there's no data about the future.Read more

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March 09, 2015

Scenarios for the Future of Medicine

Peter Kennedy
Managing Principal

For almost two years, FSG has been exploring the future of medicine and medical education, in support of the administration and board of the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME). As noted previously in these pages, FSG developed a set of four ‘future of medicine’ scenarios and facilitated a series of scenario-planning workshops to help guide ACGME strategic decisions at a time of significant uncertainty. Among the insights to emerge from the ACGME workshops were:

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February 09, 2015

A Most Ironic Scenario

Patrick Marren
Partner

Some perspective from 93 years ago on Greece threatening not to pay back its monstrous debt to German and other banks.Read more

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February 04, 2015

Future Anti-Vaccinators

Patrick Marren
Partner

Opposition to proven preventive measures is not a left-right issue - and metaphorically, it also affects a lot of businesses. 

In the past few days, a mighty attempt has been made by various Media Creatures to shoehorn a controversy over a measles outbreak and non-vaccination of children into yet another left-right bipolar fight.

The trouble is, this issue truly does not conform to the kind of simplistic Manichaean...Read more

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January 28, 2015

Syriza Scenarios

Patrick Marren
Partner

A Greek election may offer a glimpse of the future - or a brief detour to a failed past.

This past Sunday, Syriza, the Coalition of the Radical Left, won a large victory in Greek parliamentary elections over the main establishment parties, the center-right New Democracy party, led by Andonis Samaras, the Movement of Democratic Socialists, led by George Papandreou, and the already shriveling Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK), recently led by Evangelos Venizelos, and founded by Papandreou's grandfather. 

Syriza fell two votes shy of gaining an absolute majority of the...Read more

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January 06, 2015

New Year Scenario Irony Alert

Patrick Marren
Partner

2015 is starting out as a year of unexpected paradoxes and amusing contradictions.

1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is plunging because Americans are no longer being forced to take out mortgages to fill their gas tanks, and those nice guys Vladimir Putin, the Chavistas in Venezuela, and the Iranian cleric-dictators are being put in a tough spot. It's almost as though maybe Wall Street doesn't have the same interests as the average American.

2. A new Republican Congress is...Read more

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December 24, 2014

How We Might Not Have Gotten to Now

Patrick Marren
Partner

Steven Johnson's How We Got to Now - and why we might not get to ThenRead more

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December 11, 2014

A Purely Cognitive Argument Against "Enhanced Interrogation Techniques"

Patrick Marren
Partner

Why torture almost certainly can't work in the real world.Read more

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