February 04, 2014

Scenario Planning Best Practices

Peter Kennedy
Managing Principal

The 3.0 edition of Creating and Sustaining Strategic Intent in the U.S. Coast Guard has now been released. FSG worked with the Coast Guard in developing the content and case studies for the publication.Read more

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February 04, 2014

The Future Mental Olympics?

Patrick Marren
Partner

David Brooks has a column today about the effect computing technology might have on the sorts of intellectual skills humans will value in the future.

"We're clearly heading into an age of brilliant technology. Computers are already impressively good at guiding driverless cars and beating humans at chess and Jeopardy. ...[C]omputers are increasingly going to be able to perform important parts of even mostly cognitive jobs, like picking stocks, diagnosing diseases and granting parole. ......Read more

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January 28, 2014

Scenario Planning Bible

Patrick Marren
Partner

The U.S. Coast Guard releases version 3.0 of Creating and Sustaining Strategic Intent in the U.S. Coast Guard.Read more

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January 06, 2014

Positive Economic Scenarios for 2014

Peter Kennedy
Partner

At the start of 2014, the U.S. economy is looking brighter than it has been since the onset of the financial crisis.  But should we still be worried?Read more

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December 20, 2013

Season's Greetings from FSG

Peter Kennedy
Managing Principal

With the holidays upon us, FSG is catching its breath and taking stock of a busy and eventful year. We wish you and yours the very best.Read more

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November 22, 2013

JFK + 50: Alternative Scenarios

Patrick Marren
Partner

A few thoughts on this anniversary...

If JFK had lived:

1. He had started back-channel communications with Castro a few weeks before his death, so our relations with Cuba might have been very different.

2. He had also begun discussions with his advisors about an exit strategy from Vietnam. Some experts think he would have stayed in Vietnam; others, including some of his closest advisors, think he would have gotten out in a second term. It seems unlikely that he would have escalated as aggressively as LBJ.

3. If JFK had lived, it is extremely doubtful that either...Read more

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November 07, 2013

Robust Near-Earth Asteroid Scenarios

Peter Kennedy
Partner

Scenario planners are always on the lookout for "wild cards" -- low-probability, high-impact events that can occur across multiple scenarios.  Like near-Earth asteroids.Read more

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October 16, 2013

2012 (and 2011) Redux

Patrick Marren
Partner

Another blast from the past for your enjoyment, as we twiddle our thumbs as Washington flicks lit matches around a gunpowder factory, just as it did at the end of 2012 and in mid-2011 (and will do again next year).

http://www.futuresstrategygroup.com/blog/pmarren/scenario-planning-bulletin

 

A SCENARIO PLANNING BULLETIN from your SCENARIO CONSULTANTS:

In the classic game theory situation in which no one has anything to gain from looking...Read more

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October 10, 2013

What, Us Worry?

Patrick Marren
Partner

The Financial Times has a story that causes our eyebrows to rise well above half-mast this morning.

 

With Greek banks' splendid history of rigorous management and Wall Street hedge funds' impeccable eye for risk and record of spreading nothing but goodness and light in countries in which they invest, what could possibly go wrong? 

(Greek government representatives Timeo Danaos & Dona Ferentes have assured...Read more

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