December 20, 2013

Season's Greetings from FSG

Peter Kennedy
Managing Principal

With the holidays upon us, FSG is catching its breath and taking stock of a busy and eventful year. We wish you and yours the very best.Read more

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November 22, 2013

JFK + 50: Alternative Scenarios

Patrick Marren
Partner

A few thoughts on this anniversary...

If JFK had lived:

1. He had started back-channel communications with Castro a few weeks before his death, so our relations with Cuba might have been very different.

2. He had also begun discussions with his advisors about an exit strategy from Vietnam. Some experts think he would have stayed in Vietnam; others, including some of his closest advisors, think he would have gotten out in a second term. It seems unlikely that he would have escalated as aggressively as LBJ.

3. If JFK had lived, it is extremely doubtful that either...Read more

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November 07, 2013

Robust Near-Earth Asteroid Scenarios

Peter Kennedy
Partner

Scenario planners are always on the lookout for "wild cards" -- low-probability, high-impact events that can occur across multiple scenarios.  Like near-Earth asteroids.Read more

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October 16, 2013

2012 (and 2011) Redux

Patrick Marren
Partner

Another blast from the past for your enjoyment, as we twiddle our thumbs as Washington flicks lit matches around a gunpowder factory, just as it did at the end of 2012 and in mid-2011 (and will do again next year).

http://www.futuresstrategygroup.com/blog/pmarren/scenario-planning-bulletin

 

A SCENARIO PLANNING BULLETIN from your SCENARIO CONSULTANTS:

In the classic game theory situation in which no one has anything to gain from looking...Read more

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October 10, 2013

What, Us Worry?

Patrick Marren
Partner

The Financial Times has a story that causes our eyebrows to rise well above half-mast this morning.

 

With Greek banks' splendid history of rigorous management and Wall Street hedge funds' impeccable eye for risk and record of spreading nothing but goodness and light in countries in which they invest, what could possibly go wrong? 

(Greek government representatives Timeo Danaos & Dona Ferentes have assured...Read more

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October 01, 2013

A Letter to a Great Client

Patrick Marren
Partner

I've had this one written in my head for at least ten years, because some clients are so good that you take nothing for granted.Read more

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September 10, 2013

Every Day Is September 10

Patrick Marren
Partner

Happy Future Scenarios Awareness Day.Read more

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September 03, 2013

RIP, Ronald Coase 1910-2013

Patrick Marren
Partner

The legendary and ageless Ronald Coase has finally left the scene.

In honor of the great economist and thinker, we offer an article about his work from six years ago.Read more

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August 28, 2013

Mideast Scenarios, or "Damn, We're Good"

Patrick Marren
Partner

Where will the Arab Spring and Syria take the Middle East? Well, we kind of called it in 2011.Read more

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