FSG Blog
November 2, 2012

A Momentary Violation of Scenario Planning Principles

All right, it's time for predictions, because we are, after all, Americans, and this is what we do, even if we work for scenario consulting companies that are fundamentally philosophically opposed to relying on single-point predictions of the future.

My prediction is Obama will win by precisely one vote.

That vote will be cast by an albino dwarf Mennonite in Kidron, Ohio who will walk in ready to vote for Romney, but a shaft of light will strike his face just as he looks at his ballot, causing a microscopic chemical change in one of his neural brain pathways, decreasing the uptake of serotonin across one of his synapses, causing a long-suppressed memory from 1962 to rise to the surface of his consciousness, of a black playmate with whom he played baseball exactly one time and never saw again, who said when asked if he wanted to play baseball, “Baseball is the best game they is,” a phrase he immediately loved, but which he also immediately forgot for the next fifty years, due to a baseball striking him on the side of his head because of a sudden rogue gust of wind that was the harbinger of the first storm of fall, which came approximately 3 seconds early due to a complex and chaotic interaction of meteorological forces and the interaction of weather fronts that had their origin in the flapping of the wings of a single butterfly in the jungles of the Amazon rain forest exactly 437 days, 7 hours, 38 minutes and 17 seconds earlier, and which flapping, purely by chance, also will affect the longer-term weather patterns across the globe, almost imperceptibly shifting the formation of clouds some fifty years later and causing a shaft of sunlight to fall on the face of an albino dwarf Mennonite in Kidron, Ohio on November 6, 2012, prompting a positive flood of memories of a black kid he only saw once as a stretcher bore him away from a baseball field to a hospital after he was hit in the head by a baseball in 1962, causing him to punch his ballot for Obama before he was able to think about his intense hatred of the socialist Kenyan Alinskyite Muslim God-hating gangsta professor Chicago thug Ivy League elitist, and to utter an audible cry, causing those around him to turn toward him, embarrassing him and making him decide not to request a new ballot but rather to simply hand in this one and walk away to his black-bumpered Chevrolet Impala in a confusing welter of shame, rage, exhilaration, nostalgia and sadness.

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2 thoughts on “A Momentary Violation of Scenario Planning Principles”

  1. (It should be stated that
    (It should be stated that this blog entry was partially inspired by the short story “Bullet in the Brain” by the estimable Tobias Wolff. …Enjoy the last-minute electoral insanity, America!)


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