If any US industry begs for scenario planning, it is health care. Demographics, technology, government finances, provider mega-mergers and changing public expectations are converging in complex and unpredictable ways. The only thing we know for certain is that the future health care environment will look very different than it does today. Executives need to think systematically about the range of plausible health care futures, taking all this complexity and uncertainty into account. FSG scenario planning is focused on managing that uncertainty.
Over the last several years we have been helping one visionary organization – the Accreditation Council on Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) use scenario planning to get out ahead of the changes sweeping through health care and medical education. This is the story of ACGME’s intial foray into scenario planning, which continues to this day, under FSG’s direction. FSG is grateful to ACGME’s Thomas Nasca, MD and Charles Thomas for contributing this article, which was originally published in the March 2015 issue of the Journal of Graduate Medical Education.