How Doctors – and We – Think
Scenarios are like second, third, fourth and fifth opinions.
Risk
Scenario Planning for the “Overexamined” Life
"It's rampant narcissism!" our client said last week, exasperated.
Two Very Bad Scenario Planning Data Points
Illinois and Ireland and the downside of austerity.
Scenario Planning: Warren Buffett, Gottfried von Leibniz, Blaise Pascal, and Peter Bernstein
Why these people would think scenario planning was awesome.
Coastal Reconstruction Scenario Planning: Superstorm Sandy and the Retreat Option
Sometimes leaders do not have the luxury of taking the long view; sometimes high-impact events compel hard decisions to be made now.
Idea-less in Gaza
Now that the happy horserace of the election is over, on to some grimmer scenarios.
Scenario Planning, Hurricane Sandy, and Relationships
This has been a ridiculously busy and stressful week for three of our recent scenario-based strategic planning clients: the United States Coast Guard, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
Nate Silver and Data-Recency Bias
One more thought provoked by Nate Silver’s thought-provoking The Signal and the Noise.
Why Scenario-Based Planning Beats Prediction
Scenario consultants have an advantage over single-point forecasters like Nate Silver: we’re not restricted to single point forecasts.
Foxy Hedgehogs: “The Signal and the Noise”
Nate Silver’s book The Signal and the Noise makes a darned good case for scenario-based strategic planning…