Just in time for the coming US presidential election, FSG’s Patrick Marren warns about prediction in situations of strategic consequence in his review of Nate Silver’s On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.
Uncertainty around immigration, birthrates, the economy and even the environment challenge us to think about not one but multiple US population scenarios.
Gains for women, but more evolution than revolution
Human nature, for one…
Bayesian analysis has its place – but not in real strategy development
At the end of the day, it’s about having the right people committed to the project.
Imagining alternative futures
Rocket scientist, pioneer in futures studies, humanitarian, colleague and friend
Why it’s difficult to imagine the future – for ourselves and for our organizations
Much uncertainty, yes. But there always is.