The Futility of Expert Prediction
We need less certainty, wider imaginations.
Scanning the Horizon: How to Upset Your Settled Opinions
…and manage future risk and uncertainty
We Need a Positive Economic Scenario Right About Now
FSG economist Robert Avila considers what could go right.
Confessions of an Engineer
…in a complex, non-linear world
Thriving in the Uncertainty Space
It’s seldom prudent to wait until the skies clear. They rarely do.
Fifty Shades of Green
There’s climate change. And there’s the equally messy social-political-economic contexts in which it will all play out.
Don’t Expect the Future to be Rational
Even supposedly stable systems can be unpredictable — often because human behavior makes them that way.
Some Hopeful 2022 Foresight
We need this now. Happy Holidays!
Harari’s Stumble on the Future
Even brilliant authors tend to underestimate the complexity of the future.
What is Horizon Scanning? And what does it really tell us about the future?
To do over the horizon scanning, you need to start by seeing what is on the horizon.