The post-Covid future was hostile to prediction
A backward look at post-COVID scenarios demonstrates how susceptible we can be to the fascinations of the moment.
Valuing ‘Rigorous Imagination’ in Scenario Planning
Scenario planning success requires disciplined, deliberate efforts to imagine the widest range of plausible future operating environments…
Should emerging population scenarios frighten us?
Population growth creates challenges, so does population decline. We’ll likely see both, at the same time.
FSG Signals: What are we missing?
Some big, some small, some existential in their implications…
Is strategic foresight in the US government dead?
And if so, who is left to rigorously imagine the future?
Hollywood, Girl Scouts and Cross-Impact Analysis
Why your current success may be your biggest future liability.
Roots of Cross-Impact Analysis in Strategic Foresight
This is the start of a series of FSG strategic foresight blogs on what we call cross-impact analysis. More than a single, discrete methodology, it’s a way of thinking about the future that looks beyond the trends that in the present moment appear all-defining and permanent. In this initial entry FSG senior advisor (and founding …
Remembering Charles Perrottet, 1944-2025
2025 begins for us on a very sad note, since we will have to carry on without a great and useful colleague, friend, and human being, Charles Perrottet, who passed away January 3.
Are we on the cusp of an “inflection point” ?
What does that mean? And how would we know?
Book Review: Nate Silver’s “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything”
Just in time for the coming US presidential election, FSG’s Patrick Marren warns about prediction in situations of strategic consequence in his review of Nate Silver’s On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.