Don’t Expect the Future to be Rational
Even supposedly stable systems can be unpredictable — often because human behavior makes them that way.
Some Hopeful 2022 Foresight
We need this now. Happy Holidays!
Harari’s Stumble on the Future
Even brilliant authors tend to underestimate the complexity of the future.
What is Horizon Scanning? And what does it really tell us about the future?
To do over the horizon scanning, you need to start by seeing what is on the horizon.
Burnout – How Exploring Futures Can Help
A counterintuitive approach to workplace stress and weariness – aka burnout
Lessons from Afghanistan: Contingency Planning for “Unlikely” Scenarios
Being prepared for all high-impact surprises
Afghanistan & COVID: Two Ways to Be Wrong about the Future
Analysis without imagination is a guarantee of strategic surprise
Life, Death and Adaptation: How to think about the future
A narrow understanding of a business ecosystem is a constraint on imagination—and growth.
Strategic foresight requires imagination, rigor and (often) courage
Think hard before taking thorny issues off the table.
Five Future Paths for Bitcoin and Digital Currencies
Watch for hazards and detours…