Homepage

Homepage

Paste homepage markup here.

Alternative Crispr Futures

We're not to yet to designer babies or Gattica, but those futures are no longer science fiction.  Read more

Capturing Scenario Planning Value

With any strategic planning exercise, maintaining momentum through the implemention phase can be a challenge.  Here are some important insights we've picked up along the way.  Read more

23 and Me, You, Everything

Biology is not destiny, but the field of genomics is chock full of powerful implications -- for science, medicine, commerce, society and just about anything we can think of. Read more

FSG 2017 Holiday Wrap-Up

FSG scenario consultants are wrapping up a busy and stimulating 2017, and we have lots of news to share. Read more

Designing the Office of Strategic Need

Organizations are managed by people who acquired expertise from experience in an existing operating environment. But operating environments change unrelentingly.  How does one get out ahead of this change? Read more

Scenario Planning for Big Tech and Big Media

Are we nearing a tipping point? Read more

Scenario Planning for Sustainability

Earlier this month, FSG managing principal Peter Kennedy presented to the New York metro area chapter of the Sustainability Leadership Forum (SLF). Peter’s topic was scenario planning for sustainability strategy and planning, and how to manage the uncertainty that surrounds climate change impacts, regulatory policies, international agreements, economic growth and public attitudes. Read more

40 million people go missing in the future

This is the first of two short pieces that focus on demographics. A central premise of scenario based (‘alternative futures’) strategic planning is that the future is uncertain because it is emergent—it can’t be predicted by studying individual trends, because what matters is the interaction between them; moreover many of these trends are themselves unpredictable. But some of them are not. Which brings me to demographics, because of the many forces for change that we consider in the course of our work, the size of the population and its component parts would be placed at the ‘more predictable’ end of the spectrum. We know the starting population, the birth rate, the death rate, and can reasonably estimate the annual number of immigrants and emigrants, so it ought to be possible to... Read more

Older and Wiser?

This is the second of two pieces about demography, focusing on another aspect, less to do with the population’s overall size than with its structure -  specifically the changing composition by age group.... Read more

A Hypothesis about Working-Class Rage
Why are ordinary people revolting? Maybe...prediction? Read more
The Wrong Way to Use History

There have been a lot of historical analogies being thrown around lately.

The presidency of Donald Trump has caused a lot of smart people (and a lot of less-well-educated ones) to dig up stuff from the past that they see as relevant to our current situation - and to where we may be headed in the near future.

Those who like President Trump enjoy talking about how he reminds them of Ronald Reagan, another Republican outsider, who upset liberals but ended up as a transformative president, by anyone's standard. Others see him as being like Andrew Jackson, a populist who got his way and broke the centralized power of Eastern elites and central bankers. Stephen Bannon, a Trump advisor, allegedly... Read more

FSG Scenario Planning Workshop with Rhode Island Fisheries

Scenario planning is an enjoyable and stimulating endeavor, endlessly interesting and always rewarding —to a large extent because its usefulness is in decision making under uncertainty. Read more