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Earlier this month, FSG managing principal Peter Kennedy presented to the New York metro area chapter of the Sustainability Leadership Forum (SLF). Peter’s topic was scenario planning for sustainability strategy and planning, and how to manage the uncertainty that surrounds climate change impacts, regulatory policies, international agreements, economic growth and public attitudes. Read more
This is the first of two short pieces that focus on demographics. A central premise of scenario based (‘alternative futures’) strategic planning is that the future is uncertain because it is emergent—it can’t be predicted by studying individual trends, because what matters is the interaction between them; moreover many of these trends are themselves unpredictable. But some of them are not. Which brings me to demographics, because of the many forces for change that we consider in the course of our work, the size of the population and its component parts would be placed at the ‘more predictable’ end of the spectrum. We know the starting population, the birth rate, the death rate, and can reasonably estimate the annual number of immigrants and emigrants, so it ought to be possible to... Read more
There have been a lot of historical analogies being thrown around lately.
The presidency of Donald Trump has caused a lot of smart people (and a lot of less-well-educated ones) to dig up stuff from the past that they see as relevant to our current situation - and to where we may be headed in the near future.
Those who like President Trump enjoy talking about how he reminds them of Ronald Reagan, another Republican outsider, who upset liberals but ended up as a transformative president, by anyone's standard. Others see him as being like Andrew Jackson, a populist who got his way and broke the centralized power of Eastern elites and central bankers. Stephen Bannon, a Trump advisor, allegedly... Read more