September 19, 2012

400-Word Scenario #7: No More Newspapers

Patrick Marren
Partner

Print newspapers seem to be going away. What happens when they do? It's not all about ink and paper.Read more

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September 14, 2012

The Future of Apple and Us

Patrick Marren
Partner

Your scenario consultants imagine the future of Apple products to 2020...so you don't have to.Read more

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August 21, 2012

400-Word Scenario #5: Revenge of the Real?

Patrick Marren
Partner

The Actual has its revenge upon the Virtual...Read more

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July 12, 2012

400-Word Scenario #1: Clawback World

Patrick Marren
Partner

Scenario planning requires imagination. Everyone likes to pretend that imagination is fun and games. But really, imagination is often very difficult and painful, because it requires us not just to take incremental steps along a pre-existing path, but to make up an entirely different path. (There are gradations of this: from some godlike perspective even truly ingenious innovative thoughts can seem boring and incremental, and from an quotidian perspective simple incremental steps can seem like the moon landing. But I digress.) 

However, imagination, pain in the posterior though it...Read more

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July 09, 2012

Frank Newman's Six Myths - #6: If the U.S. does not get its fiscal deficit reduced soon, U.S. Treasuries will face the same problems as bonds of Greece and Ireland

Charles Perrottet
Partner

Today we examine the sixth and final “myth” from Frank Newman’s book Six Myths That Are Holding Back America – the worry that U.S. Treasuries could come to have the same problems of lack of demand due to fear that it will not repay the bonds coupled with escalating interest rates.  As with all the myths, Mr Newman attempts to present the mechanisms that drive international finance.  The policy implications are rich and varied and the subject of legitimate debate.  Scenario planning can and should be used to evaluate alternatives.

U.S. Treasuries are widely regarded as the...Read more

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July 02, 2012

Frank Newman's Six Myths - #5: Deficits create great burdens of repayment and taxes for our children

Charles Perrottet
Partner

Today we examine the fifth “myth” from Frank Newman’s book Six Myths That Are Holding Back America – that the national debt will be a crippling load for our children and grandchildren to repay.

These days it seems that we get a constant stream of articles proclaiming that we are bankrupting our children and grandchildren through the massive national debt that we are compiling.  While the numbers are very large, the argument that it is a burden to our offspring implicitly compares the national budget to a family budget.  This is intuitively appealing, but misses...Read more

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June 29, 2012

Frank Newman's Six Myths - #4: If the deficit is reduced, then national saving and investment will increase

Charles Perrottet
Partner

Today we examine the fourth “myth” from Frank Newman’s book Six Myths That Are Holding Back America – the presumption that increased saving will drive increased investment.

By definition, the government will reduce the deficit when it spends less than it receives.  Everything that the government receives comes from the private sector (either from taxes or the sale of Treasuries) and everything that it spends eventually finds its way back to the private sector.  If the government collects more than it spends it creates “Government Savings”.   On the other side of the...Read more

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June 26, 2012

Frank Newman's Six Myths - #3: If everyone tries to save more, the nation will save more, and investment, GDP, and employment will increase

Charles Perrottet
Partner

Today we examine the third “myth” from Frank Newman’s book Six Myths That Are Holding Back America – the presumption that increased saving will drive increased investment.

Friedrich Hayek published an article titled the “Paradox of Saving” in 1929.  This concept was later popularized by John Maynard Keynes who discussed the “paradox of thrift”.  The paradox rests in the observation that, while saving by a single individual increases that individual’s wealth, if everyone in a nation increases their saving, this must necessarily decrease spending.  With less spending national...Read more

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June 08, 2012

Pray for Austerity to Work in 2013...

Patrick Marren
Partner

Another quick and filthy Friday Scenario Planning exercise.

Someone is holding a gun to your head and asking what the impact of the 2012 election will be on your organization.

Here's your answer: Austerity -- either moderate or less moderate. 

Damnable 2 x 2 consultant matrix for today: Obama vs. Romney on one axis; Keynes Is Right vs. The Austrians Are Right on the other.

The first axis is self-explanatory: Obama gets re-elected versus Romney gets elected. The second is as follows: "Keynes Is Right" means that John Maynard Keynes' analysis of the original Great...Read more

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June 01, 2012

U.S. Election Scenario Data Points: June 1, 2012

Patrick Marren
Partner

May job numbers come in weak for yet another month, after some hopeful signs in the first quarter. Some scenarios for the election campaign are coming into focus.Read more

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