Valuing ‘Rigorous Imagination’ in Scenario Planning
Scenario planning success requires disciplined, deliberate efforts to imagine the widest range of plausible future operating environments…
Book reviews
Book Review: Nate Silver’s “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything”
Just in time for the coming US presidential election, FSG’s Patrick Marren warns about prediction in situations of strategic consequence in his review of Nate Silver’s On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.
Everything is predictable. Not.
Bayesian analysis has its place – but not in real strategy development
Harari’s Stumble on the Future
Even brilliant authors tend to underestimate the complexity of the future.
Hate to Say We Told You So…
But we told you so.
Nate Silver Is A Rigged System
It's not that he's wrong. It's that Presidential elections are not baseball.
How We Might Not Have Gotten to Now
Steven Johnson’s How We Got to Now – and why we might not get to Then.
What if Thomas Piketty is Right about Inequality?
A FSG conversation on one of the most important economic questions of our time.
Scenario Planning Bible
The U.S. Coast Guard releases version 3.0 of Creating and Sustaining Strategic Intent in the U.S. Coast Guard.