How Doctors – and We – Think
Scenarios are like second, third, fourth and fifth opinions.
Book reviews
Scenario Planning for the “Overexamined” Life
"It's rampant narcissism!" our client said last week, exasperated.
The Boston Marathon Bombing, Al Gore, Byron Reese, and Scenario Planning
While the surreal drama of the Marathon Bombing and the subsequent manhunt was going on last week, I was reading two books about the future.
De Rerum Mutandorum
Institutions change faster and more completely than we think. An example from some recent reading: Harvard University.
Nate Silver and Data-Recency Bias
One more thought provoked by Nate Silver’s thought-provoking The Signal and the Noise.
Why Scenario-Based Planning Beats Prediction
Scenario consultants have an advantage over single-point forecasters like Nate Silver: we’re not restricted to single point forecasts.
Foxy Hedgehogs: “The Signal and the Noise”
Nate Silver’s book The Signal and the Noise makes a darned good case for scenario-based strategic planning…
My Team’s Okay, Your Team’s Evil
Jonathan Haidt thinks we’re weird. And as scenario consultants, we have to agree.
U.S. Election Scenario Data Points: June 1, 2012
May job numbers come in weak for yet another month, after some hopeful signs in the first quarter. Some scenarios for the election campaign are coming into focus.
Scenario Consultant Perspective: Friday’s Naive Two-By-Two Matrix
Paul Krugman’s column today induces us to create scenarios…it’s what we do.