This has been a ridiculously busy and stressful week for three of our recent scenario-based strategic planning clients: the United States Coast Guard, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
One more thought provoked by Nate Silver’s thought-provoking The Signal and the Noise.
Nate Silver is not a household name in the scenario-planning world, not yet anyhow. But FSG partner Patrick Marren has discovered in Silver’s writings a lot of rich fodder for scenario thought, of interest to strategists, planners and risk managers.
Scenario consultants have an advantage over single-point forecasters like Nate Silver: we’re not restricted to single point forecasts.
Nate Silver’s book The Signal and the Noise makes a darned good case for scenario-based strategic planning…
In late September, FSG facilitated a three-day scenario-planning workshop in Westminster, MD as part of the U.S. Coast Guard’s Project Evergreen long-range planning process.
Print newspapers seem to be going away. What happens when they do? It's not all about ink and paper.
Ladies and gentlemen, I have 400 words of bad news: we may look back on 2012 as “the good old days of political cooperation.”
Since re-launching our website earlier this year, FSG has been steadily building up content that sheds light on some of the biggest things we have learned over more than 20 years working together as scenario consultants for some of the most dynamic enterprises in the world.
After decades of trying to help clients anticipate the widest range of plausible possible future events, the following quote rings quite true to us: “Those who know more forecast very slightly better than those who know less. But those with the most knowledge are often least reliable.”