Our unique approach to scenario planning, corporate strategy and futures analysis yields measurable results.

Scenarios and Quantitative Modeling: An Automotive Case Study

Scenario planning and market forecasting are typically at odds with one another. Scenarios are a tool for managing in highly uncertain, typically longer-term environments. They leverage the imagination and judgment of planners, unencumbered by what happened in the past. Market modeling, in contrast, has a predictive function. It’s a useful — indeed essential — tool for short-term forecasts in relatively stable business environments.

The case for combining scenarios and quantitative modeling

A major automotive producer asked FSG principals to estimate the range of automotive demand in a Latin American market characterized by economic volatility and political uncertainty. This case study describes our approach and the lessons we learned as we blended scenarios and quantitative modeling. It originally appeared in a 2013 edition of the journal Strategy & Leadership.