Nate Silver and Data-Recency Bias
One more thought provoked by Nate Silver’s thought-provoking The Signal and the Noise.
Decision-making and Judgment
Why Scenario-Based Planning Beats Prediction
Scenario consultants have an advantage over single-point forecasters like Nate Silver: we’re not restricted to single point forecasts.
Foxy Hedgehogs: “The Signal and the Noise”
Nate Silver’s book The Signal and the Noise makes a darned good case for scenario-based strategic planning…
My Team’s Okay, Your Team’s Evil
Jonathan Haidt thinks we’re weird. And as scenario consultants, we have to agree.
Why Scenario Planning Works
Say you have a strategic decision to make. And you have several experts giving you different expert opinions about how you should make that decision. And you are not an expert. What do you do?
Friday Scenario Warning: Check Your Ideology at the Door
In election season as in any other season, when making business decisions in conditions of uncertainty, ideologies can be deadly – and we all have them. Scenarios can help.
Types of Scenario Planning
by Charles Thomas
The term “scenario planning” encompasses a surprisingly diverse range of activities. While there are many potential schemes for categorizing these activities, the discussion below presents a fairly comprehensive view of them, and indicates – if imperfectly – the relationships among the various approaches.
Silos, seams and business model reengineering
“Silos” are an inevitable part of any organization; indeed, of any human activity. Even if you confine yourself to individual action, your own mind is thinking within certain categories, usually operating off a mental model that tells you what to expect – “If I do X, then Y will happen” – and what NOT to expect – Z or W or something completely different.
Scenario Planning at FSG
What exactly does the Futures Strategy Group do? We help excellent organizations make better decisions under conditions of uncertainty — mainly through the use of scenarios.
Seven Wrong Things People Think About the Future
All along the untrodden paths of the future I see the footprints of an unseen hand. – Sir Boyle Roche
We who inhabit the Land of Scenariotopia (as a former colleague termed our little realm) think that the best way to predict the future is not to.