Scenario Planning: Warren Buffett, Gottfried von Leibniz, Blaise Pascal, and Peter Bernstein
Why these people would think scenario planning was awesome.
Decision-making and Judgment
De Rerum Mutandorum
Institutions change faster and more completely than we think. An example from some recent reading: Harvard University.
Thirteen: Year of Magical Thinking
Too many hands.
2012: Five Inevitable Things That Did Not Happen
Five things that were "bound to occur," away from which we rashly predict the media will moonwalk at warp speed in 2013.
A Scenario Planning Bulletin
Hot Breaking News on the Fiscal Cliff!
Coastal Reconstruction Scenario Planning: Superstorm Sandy and the Retreat Option
Sometimes leaders do not have the luxury of taking the long view; sometimes high-impact events compel hard decisions to be made now.
Idea-less in Gaza
Now that the happy horserace of the election is over, on to some grimmer scenarios.
Scenario Planning, Hurricane Sandy, and Relationships
This has been a ridiculously busy and stressful week for three of our recent scenario-based strategic planning clients: the United States Coast Guard, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
Nate Silver and Data-Recency Bias
One more thought provoked by Nate Silver’s thought-provoking The Signal and the Noise.
Why Scenario-Based Planning Beats Prediction
Scenario consultants have an advantage over single-point forecasters like Nate Silver: we’re not restricted to single point forecasts.