How Doctors – and We – Think
Scenarios are like second, third, fourth and fifth opinions.
Decision-making and Judgment
The War on the Future
Some say our era is dominated by the war between the left and the right. But the real war right now is the war of the present against the future.
The Boston Marathon Bombing, Al Gore, Byron Reese, and Scenario Planning
While the surreal drama of the Marathon Bombing and the subsequent manhunt was going on last week, I was reading two books about the future.
Scenario Planning: Warren Buffett, Gottfried von Leibniz, Blaise Pascal, and Peter Bernstein
Why these people would think scenario planning was awesome.
De Rerum Mutandorum
Institutions change faster and more completely than we think. An example from some recent reading: Harvard University.
Thirteen: Year of Magical Thinking
Too many hands.
2012: Five Inevitable Things That Did Not Happen
Five things that were "bound to occur," away from which we rashly predict the media will moonwalk at warp speed in 2013.
A Scenario Planning Bulletin
Hot Breaking News on the Fiscal Cliff!
Coastal Reconstruction Scenario Planning: Superstorm Sandy and the Retreat Option
Sometimes leaders do not have the luxury of taking the long view; sometimes high-impact events compel hard decisions to be made now.
Idea-less in Gaza
Now that the happy horserace of the election is over, on to some grimmer scenarios.