Why prediction markets are not strategy
…and why you need to trust the collective wisdom of the organization
Decision-making and Judgment
AI in Scenario Planning: Promise and Challenges
AI in scenario planning was an inevitable development. Does it help or hinder the effectiveness of scenario use in strategy development and execution?
Hollywood, Girl Scouts and Cross-Impact Analysis
Why your current success may be your biggest future liability.
Are we on the cusp of an “inflection point” ?
What does that mean? And how would we know?
Everything is predictable. Not.
Bayesian analysis has its place – but not in real strategy development
Anticipating the Human Factors in a Scenario Planning Experience
At the end of the day, it’s about having the right people committed to the project.
AI Scenarios: Getting Beyond Our Reflex to Imagine the Worst
The complex AI future requires it…
Signals: Is the future of Texas the US’ future?
It’s a complicated question.
Scanning the Horizon: How to Upset Your Settled Opinions
…and manage future risk and uncertainty
Confessions of an Engineer
…in a complex, non-linear world