This Never Happened
Future scenarios require a past, because there's no data about the future.
Decision-making and Judgment
Future Anti-Vaccinators
Opposition to proven preventive measures is not a left-right issue – and metaphorically, it also affects a lot of businesses.
In the past few days, a mighty attempt has been made by various Media Creatures to shoehorn a controversy over a measles outbreak and non-vaccination of children into yet another left-right bipolar fight.
A Purely Cognitive Argument Against “Enhanced Interrogation Techniques”
Why torture almost certainly can't work in the real world.
Why Driverless Cars Are Still Not
Autonomous vehicle technology has made great strides, but a fascinating confluence of non-technology factors continues to inhibit the sector.
Unknown Unknowns, Scenarios and Strategic Judgment
Errol Morris’s documentary on Donald Rumsfeld is in the theatres. The film, plus a companion four-part series on the former secretary of defense in the The New York Times, raises interesting questions about knowledge, uncertainty and corporate strategy.
Scenario Perspectives on California Drought
Is the current California drought about climate change or some periodically recurring rainfall shortage? The experts don't agree. Which is why planners affected by this situation should rigorously think through multiple scenarios — and their implications.
Scenario Planning Bible
The U.S. Coast Guard releases version 3.0 of Creating and Sustaining Strategic Intent in the U.S. Coast Guard.
How Doctors – and We – Think
Scenarios are like second, third, fourth and fifth opinions.
The War on the Future
Some say our era is dominated by the war between the left and the right. But the real war right now is the war of the present against the future.
The Boston Marathon Bombing, Al Gore, Byron Reese, and Scenario Planning
While the surreal drama of the Marathon Bombing and the subsequent manhunt was going on last week, I was reading two books about the future.