A Purely Cognitive Argument Against “Enhanced Interrogation Techniques”
Why torture almost certainly can't work in the real world.
Strategy
Unknown Unknowns, Scenarios and Strategic Judgment
Errol Morris’s documentary on Donald Rumsfeld is in the theatres. The film, plus a companion four-part series on the former secretary of defense in the The New York Times, raises interesting questions about knowledge, uncertainty and corporate strategy.
Scenario Planning Bible
The U.S. Coast Guard releases version 3.0 of Creating and Sustaining Strategic Intent in the U.S. Coast Guard.
Airline Scenarios: American-US Airways
Normally we are into alternative scenarios. But airlines seem to be stuck in one scenario.
400-Word Scenario #10: Fiscal Ramp to Prosperity
February 14, 2013 [Wolf News/MSDNC]: In a Valentine’s Day miracle, Congress and the administration today reached a long-term deal on the debt ceiling, taxes, and fiscal reform,
A Scenario Planning Bulletin
Hot Breaking News on the Fiscal Cliff!
Idea-less in Gaza
Now that the happy horserace of the election is over, on to some grimmer scenarios.
Scenario Planning, Hurricane Sandy, and Relationships
This has been a ridiculously busy and stressful week for three of our recent scenario-based strategic planning clients: the United States Coast Guard, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
Nate Silver and Data-Recency Bias
One more thought provoked by Nate Silver’s thought-provoking The Signal and the Noise.
Why Scenario-Based Planning Beats Prediction
Scenario consultants have an advantage over single-point forecasters like Nate Silver: we’re not restricted to single point forecasts.