Idea-less in Gaza
Now that the happy horserace of the election is over, on to some grimmer scenarios.
The Future
Scenario Planning, Hurricane Sandy, and Relationships
This has been a ridiculously busy and stressful week for three of our recent scenario-based strategic planning clients: the United States Coast Guard, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
Nate Silver and Data-Recency Bias
One more thought provoked by Nate Silver’s thought-provoking The Signal and the Noise.
Foxy Hedgehogs: “The Signal and the Noise”
Nate Silver’s book The Signal and the Noise makes a darned good case for scenario-based strategic planning…
400-Word Scenario #7: No More Newspapers
Print newspapers seem to be going away. What happens when they do? It's not all about ink and paper.
400-Word Scenario #6: Prisoners’ Dilemma Nation
Ladies and gentlemen, I have 400 words of bad news: we may look back on 2012 as “the good old days of political cooperation.”
Experts Are the Worst Forecasters
After decades of trying to help clients anticipate the widest range of plausible possible future events, the following quote rings quite true to us: “Those who know more forecast very slightly better than those who know less. But those with the most knowledge are often least reliable.”
400-Word Scenario #5: Revenge of the Real?
The Actual has its revenge upon the Virtual…
Partisan Hatred Scenario?
A hypothesis: our current terrible state of political dialogue could be an equilibrium that satisfies far deeper emotional longings than any consensus ever could.
400-Word Scenario #3: Retirement Redistribution
A future scenario of mass wealth redistribution to a generation that just did not save enough for retirement.