The post-Covid future was hostile to prediction
A backward look at post-COVID scenarios demonstrates how susceptible we can be to the fascinations of the moment.
Perils of Prognostication
Roots of Cross-Impact Analysis in Strategic Foresight
This is the start of a series of FSG strategic foresight blogs on what we call cross-impact analysis. More than a single, discrete methodology, it’s a way of thinking about the future that looks beyond the trends that in the present moment appear all-defining and permanent. In this initial entry FSG senior advisor (and founding …
The complex puzzle of US population scenarios
Uncertainty around immigration, birthrates, the economy and even the environment challenge us to think about not one but multiple US population scenarios.
Don’t Expect the Future to be Rational
Even supposedly stable systems can be unpredictable — often because human behavior makes them that way.
Harari’s Stumble on the Future
Even brilliant authors tend to underestimate the complexity of the future.
Foresight, Disaster, and Texas
When it comes to disaster preparedness, no one comes out looking all that good.
Biden, Fauci, FDR and Decision Making Under Uncertainty
“It is common sense to take a method and try it: If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something.”
2020: An Extraordinary Year. FSG takes stock
May all our futures be brighter in 2021
The post-COVID future is hostile to prediction
It’s about foresight — being ready for whatever the future brings.
Is the Republican Party Doomed by Demographics?
In short, no. Here’s why…