Scenario Planning and Truth
The essential value of scenario planning is not just about constructing cool futuristic stories to “get the client thinking outside the box.”
400-Word Scenario #5: Revenge of the Real?
The Actual has its revenge upon the Virtual…
Partisan Hatred Scenario?
A hypothesis: our current terrible state of political dialogue could be an equilibrium that satisfies far deeper emotional longings than any consensus ever could.
My Team’s Okay, Your Team’s Evil
Jonathan Haidt thinks we’re weird. And as scenario consultants, we have to agree.
400-Word Scenario #3: Retirement Redistribution
A future scenario of mass wealth redistribution to a generation that just did not save enough for retirement.
400-Word Scenario #2: The Good Old Days of Gun Violence
July 21, 2042 (Fox/MSNBC News): The nation reacted with a mix of horror, outrage, calls for new laws, and debate over the Second Amendment as the scale of the latest mass murder came into focus over the past two days.
400-Word Scenario #1: Clawback World
Scenario planning requires imagination. Everyone likes to pretend that imagination is fun and games. But really, imagination is often very difficult and painful, because it requires us not just to take incremental steps along a pre-existing path, but to make up an entirely different path.
We’re Doomed! No, We’re Saved! Euro Scenarios
Scenario consulting has rarely had a better promotional material than Europe has been pumping out the past year or so. Uncertainty abounds.
Sunday’s election in Greece has once again caused the Very Serious People in Europe to breathe a sigh of relief. “New Democracy, the mainline conservative party that wants to stay in the euro, won the election and can form a government! We’re saved!”
Why Scenario Planning Works
Say you have a strategic decision to make. And you have several experts giving you different expert opinions about how you should make that decision. And you are not an expert. What do you do?
Scenario Consulting to Go
It’s been said – and it’s still true – that scenario planning is most valuable as a tool to deliver strategic insights for longer-term planning. But in recent years, with the accelerating pace of change (and the increased recognition of such), private sector executives have tended to pass on in-depth strategic exercises in favor of what most would consider to be business planning. FSG believes this is a mistake, and that the need for thinking rigorously about what lies “around the corner” is always valuable, especially in turbulent times.