In late September, FSG scenario planning consultants facilitated a three-day Evergreen scenario planning workshop in Westminster, MD as part of the U.S. Coast Guard’s long-range planning process. Some 60 USCG officers, senior enlisted and civilian personnel participated in the event, which was designed to apply Evergreen scenario-planning insights to inform a range of strategic investment decisions currently facing Coast Guard leadership. Together, the five Evergreen scenarios depict a broad range of plausible future operating conditions, including prolonged fiscal distress in the U.S., intensifying climate-change impacts, new global governance regimes, accelerating technological change, and new threat vectors in the maritime domain. This is the most focused, near-term application of Evergreen insights at the Coast Guard since the scenario-planning process was adopted (as Project Long View originally) in 1989.
November 2021 update: Check out the 2020 Harvard Business Review feature on the USCG’s experience with scenario planning.