Why prediction markets are not strategy
…and why you need to trust the collective wisdom of the organization
Seven Impacts of Baby Bust Scenarios
What happens when there are fewer children?
AI in Scenario Planning: Promise and Challenges
AI in scenario planning was an inevitable development. Does it help or hinder the effectiveness of scenario use in strategy development and execution?
The post-Covid future was hostile to prediction
A backward look at post-COVID scenarios demonstrates how susceptible we can be to the fascinations of the moment.
Valuing ‘Rigorous Imagination’ in Scenario Planning
Scenario planning success requires disciplined, deliberate efforts to imagine the widest range of plausible future operating environments…
Should emerging population scenarios frighten us?
Population growth creates challenges, so does population decline. We’ll likely see both, at the same time.
FSG Signals: What are we missing?
Some big, some small, some existential in their implications…
Is strategic foresight in the US government dead?
And if so, who is left to rigorously imagine the future?
Hollywood, Girl Scouts and Cross-Impact Analysis
Why your current success may be your biggest future liability.
Roots of Cross-Impact Analysis in Strategic Foresight
This is the start of a series of FSG strategic foresight blogs on what we call cross-impact analysis. More than a single, discrete methodology, it’s a way of thinking about the future that looks beyond the trends that in the present moment appear all-defining and permanent. In this initial entry FSG senior advisor (and founding …