July 16, 2015

Multiple Alternative Future Scenarios Wanted

Patrick Marren
Partner

What to do when Nobel-winning economists disagree? Create alternative scenarios, of course.

The Greek Vouli (Parliament) just approved a series of tough reform measures meant to mollify their creditors and allow it to stay in the euro zone. 

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May 12, 2015

A Gigantic Missed Opportunity?

Patrick Marren
Partner

This week may mark the passing of a great national opportunity for the United States.

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April 09, 2015

An Implausible (But True?) Interest Rate Scenario

Patrick Marren
Partner

Interesting stuff from Brad DeLong​, possibly explaining much of the last decade of economic weirdness:

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March 31, 2015

This Never Happened

Patrick Marren
Partner

Future scenarios require a past, because there's no data about the future.

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February 09, 2015

A Most Ironic Scenario

Patrick Marren
Partner

Some perspective from 93 years ago on Greece threatening not to pay back its monstrous debt to German and other banks.

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February 04, 2015

Future Anti-Vaccinators

Patrick Marren
Partner

Opposition to proven preventive measures is not a left-right issue - and metaphorically, it also affects a lot of businesses. 

In the past few days, a mighty attempt has been made by various Media Creatures to shoehorn a controversy over a measles outbreak and non-vaccination of children into yet another left-right bipolar fight.

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January 28, 2015

Syriza Scenarios

Patrick Marren
Partner

A Greek election may offer a glimpse of the future - or a brief detour to a failed past.

This past Sunday, Syriza, the Coalition of the Radical Left, won a large victory in Greek parliamentary elections over the main establishment parties, the center-right New Democracy party, led by Andonis Samaras, the Movement of Democratic Socialists, led by George Papandreou, and the already shriveling Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK), recently led by Evangelos Venizelos, and founded by Papandreou's grandfather. 

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January 06, 2015

New Year Scenario Irony Alert

Patrick Marren
Partner

2015 is starting out as a year of unexpected paradoxes and amusing contradictions.

1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is plunging because Americans are no longer being forced to take out mortgages to fill their gas tanks, and those nice guys Vladimir Putin, the Chavistas in Venezuela, and the Iranian cleric-dictators are being put in a tough spot. It's almost as though maybe Wall Street doesn't have the same interests as the average American.

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December 24, 2014

How We Might Not Have Gotten to Now

Patrick Marren
Partner

Steven Johnson's How We Got to Now - and why we might not get to Then

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December 11, 2014

A Purely Cognitive Argument Against "Enhanced Interrogation Techniques"

Patrick Marren
Partner

Why torture almost certainly can't work in the real world.

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