October 11, 2017

Older and Wiser?

Gerard Smith
Managing Principal

This is the second of two pieces about demography, focusing on another aspect, less to do with the population’s overall size than with its structure -  specifically the changing composition by age group....Read more

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April 27, 2017

A Hypothesis about Working-Class Rage

Patrick Marren
Principal
Why are ordinary people revolting? Maybe...prediction?Read more
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April 25, 2017

The Wrong Way to Use History

Patrick Marren
Principal

There have been a lot of historical analogies being thrown around lately.

The presidency of Donald Trump has caused a lot of smart people (and a lot of less-well-educated ones) to dig up stuff from the past that they see as relevant to our current situation - and to where we may be headed in the near future.

Those who like President Trump enjoy talking about how he reminds them of Ronald Reagan, another Republican outsider, who upset liberals but ended up as a transformative president, by anyone's standard. Others see him as being like Andrew Jackson, a populist who got his...Read more

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March 23, 2017

FSG Scenario Planning Workshop with Rhode Island Fisheries

Peter Kennedy
Managing Principal

Scenario planning is an enjoyable and stimulating endeavor, endlessly interesting and always rewarding —to a large extent because its usefulness is in decision making under uncertainty.Read more

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March 14, 2017

Designing the Office of Strategic Need

By Kevin McDermott, Founder of Collective Intelligence and FSG Associate, and Charles Thomas, FSG Managing Principal
FSG support

Organizations are managed by people who acquired expertise from experience in an existing operating environment. But operating environments change unrelentingly.  How does one get out ahead of this change?Read more

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December 22, 2016

FSG and Scenario Planning in 2017

Peter Kennedy
Managing Principal
There must be some way out of here

Said the joker to the thief

There’s just too much confusion

I can’t get no relief.

 

-Bob Dylan, 2016 Nobel Prize Winner for Literature

“All Along the Watchtower”

What a year it’s been.  And there’s still a week left.  How many wild cards, Black Swans, once-a-century events...Read more

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November 16, 2016

Hate to Say We Told You So...

Patrick Marren
Principal
But we told you so.Read more
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October 18, 2016

Nate Silver Is A Rigged System

Patrick Marren
Principal

It's not that he's wrong. It's that Presidential elections are not baseball.Read more

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October 13, 2016

Fall 2016 Scenario Planning Update

Peter Kennedy
Managing Principal

Scenario planning has never been more challenging – or important.

 Read more

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October 03, 2016

Undecideds have decided. Game over?

Gerard Smith
Managing Principal

There’s actually less volatility in the polls than you might think. 

Virtually everything about election polls is anathema to scenario planners. Pollsters are concerned with the short term, and however much their reports are hedged, present a false precision to forecasts of uncertain outcomes. They have also been famously wrong, and are likely to become less and less reliable as response rates continue to fall. And yet, so extraordinary...Read more

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